War and uncertainty shape Farnborough expectations

For the second time in a row, the Farnborough Air Show will open as war rages on European soil—and for the second time in a decade, amid the prospect of a far less NATO-friendly White House.

Everyone's waiting to see what happens in November, said Eric Fanning, the CEO of the Aerospace Industries Association, which convenes industry and government officials at overseas trade shows. 

"There are many conversations about NATO and Ukraine with the specter of the U.S. election,” Fanning said in an interview. “There are a lot of issues regarding cooperation, a lot of geopolitical issues, a lot of competition issues, and all these elections coming up, so I think it's going to be a very interesting show.”

Tens of thousands are expected to gather just west of London for the biennial air show, which is typically dominated by commercial sales yet also draws plenty of defense company CEOs and sales reps to pitch their wares to prime contractors and government officials.

This year’s show, which runs July 22-26, comes just after NATO wrapped up its summit in Washington, D.C., where leaders pledged a bridge to membership for war-wracked Ukraine. But U.S. political drama cast a shadow over the summit. With President Biden’s weak polling numbers and questions surrounding his candidacy, NATO and Ukraine are bracing for Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House. On Monday, Trump underscored his isolationist tendencies by picking as his running mate Ohio Sen. JD Vance, a vocal opponent of aid to Ukraine.

While future military aid to Ukraine hangs in the balance, conversations about how allies can collectively produce more weapons will likely take place on the sidebars of the show, as U.S. tries to figure out how it can get the capacity it needs to build weapons to replenish its own stocks, keep sending weapons to Ukraine and Israel, and prepare Taiwan in the event of an invasion from China. 

Execs might also shed some light on how major aerospace companies are dealing with industrial base challenges and supply chain problems. While the COVID-19 pandemic seems to be in the past, pressure to replace Chinese components may bring more complications for companies. 

Fanning said the U.S. is dealing with two main supply chain problems: its dependence on China for critical parts—a country the U.S. now increasingly views as an adversary—and a thinned out supply chain—both of which will require a lot of money to fix. Heads of industry will provide more color at the show on where the pinch points are in their supply chains, and what they’re doing about them. 

Another likely topic: where allies are on the development of new weapons, drones, and Europe’s effort to build a new fighter jet. At the last Farnborough show, U.K. officials promised that a prototype of its next-gen fighter, called Tempest, which is being developed with Italy and Japan, will fly by 2027. 

The U.S. is sending a large delegation of government officials to meet with foreign counterparts at Farnborough—including Pentagon acquisition chief Bill LaPlante, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, and a sizable group of lawmakers led by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., and Sen. Jerry Moran, R-Kan.

Shaheen, a senior member of the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees, said she isn’t worried about assuaging fears about a Trump presidency at Farnborough. There is strong bipartisan support for NATO in the House and Senate, Shaheen told Defense One. Rather, the congressional delegation will be focused on meeting the new UK government to talk about AUKUS and other partner efforts. 

“I think it’s a great opportunity for us to talk to our allies, particularly the new Labor leaders in the UK,” she said. 

U.S. Air Force Chief Gen. David Allvin won’t be attending Farnborough, but will join other air chiefs at the Royal International Air Tattoo, the all-military air show that precedes it. Gen. James Hecker, head of U.S. Air Forces in Europe and Africa, will also attend RIAT, held at Fairford in central England. 

The U.S. is bringing a slew of aircraft to RIAT and Farnborough, including F-35, F-16, and F-15 fighter jet squadrons and a B-52 bomber squadron. Some of these aircraft will fly over the crowds and others will be on static display on the tarmac. 

Who else is sending aircraft? Not Moscow. Russia had a sizable presence at the Dubai Air Show in November, including an appearance from the Russian Knights demonstration team, but is still banned from Farnborough in response to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. 

China had a small chalet at Farnborough two years ago, and will have a presence at this year’s show, but it remains to be seen what, if any, defense products it will show off. On the commercial side, China might be talking about its Comac 919 airliner, which made its debut earlier this year at the Singapore Air Show. China wants to export the C919 globally and compete against Boeing.

Israel will have a presence at the show; major defense firm Israel Aerospace Industries is listed as an exhibitor. Earlier this year, France banned Israeli defense firms from Eurosatory, Europe’s largest defense show, over concerns about Israel’s military conduct in Gaza, a move that was later reversed halfway through the show. It’s unclear how much the ongoing war in the Middle East will come up at the airshow, but as the U.S. continues to send weapons to Israel, it might play into conversations about increasing global demand for munitions.