Global Snapshot: The Middle East and North Africa Defense Environment

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) collectively spent $220.6 billion on defense in 2024, amounting to about 9.5 percent of the global total for the year. Nearly all states in the MENA region that publish their annual defense spending data increased their budget year-on-year from 2023, expanding at an average rate of 15.6 percent -- the fastest rate in the world, even above that of Europe.

Underpinning the strong growth in MENA defense spending is a challenging security environment, heavily defined by the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel and subsequent Israeli offensive into the Gaza Strip. The conflict widened in 2024, as Israeli troops skirmished with Hezbollah and southern Lebanon and traded missile strikes with Iran directly. The Yemeni militant group Ansar Allah, meanwhile, began attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, disrupting commercial traffic through the Suez Canal.

The Israeli government reached a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah in November 2024, followed by a separate arrangement with Hamas two months later. Successful implementation of these deals would stabilize the situation on Israel's northern and southern borders, but regional tension is unlikely to abate quickly.

MENA defense spending is likely to remain on the upswing even as Israel's conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah wind down. While Middle Eastern governments have largely sought to avoid entanglement in the broader stand-off between Israel and Iran, the region's militaries remain concerned about blowback from the fighting. Dynamics of the recent wars have moreover exposed gaps in regional force structures and capabilities, requiring new procurement.

On top of persistent state rivalries in MENA, the region's frozen conflicts are at perennial risk of re-opening. Towards the end of 2024, a new shock hit the Middle East, as Syria's dormant civil war reignited with a rebel offensive that toppled the Assad regime, forcing Syria's neighbors to rapidly reconfigure their political approach to the country. The sudden collapse of the Assad regime has also put a spotlight on other frozen wars, such as in Libya.

At $71.4 billion in 2024, the Saudi defense budget is by far the largest in the Middle East, and the fourth largest in the  world, behind only the U.S., China, and Russia. Riyadh added about 8.5 percent to its defense budget in 2024 compared to 2023. The expansion to the budget continues a growth trend begun in 2022 that snapped a multi-year period of stagnation in Saudi defense outlays.

Both Iran and Israel, whose annual defense spending is similar at over $30 billion apiece, grew their defense budgets around 40 percent in 2024. There is no reliable framework for projecting the Emirati defense budget, as no estimates are disclosed, but the government is widely believed to devote anywhere from $20-30 billion towards its Armed Forces. The Iraqi defense budget, worth almost $9 billion, expanded over 25 percent in 2024. Oman's $8 billion defense budget is under 4 percent of the MENA total for the year -- but the sultanate is the region's largest spender as a percentage of economic output, at over 7.3 percent of GDP. 
Over half of Africa's annual defense outlays are concentrated in just a few countries in North Africa, with Algeria's $21.7 billion defense budget leading the way. Algerian defense spending doubled from 2022-2023, and recorded another 11 percent growth in 2024, driven higher by declining relations with Morocco. The two severed diplomatic relations in 2021, trading accusations of backing separatist movements in the other's borders. 
Amid the diplomatic crisis with Algeria, Morocco, the second largest defense spender in Africa, has also grown its defense budget, albeit at a pace slower than that of the Algerian budget. Morocco hiked spending substantially in 2020 as it pursued several procurement deals for its military, including the purchase of new fighter jets, drones, and air-defense equipment. Subsequently, the Moroccan defense budget has grown at an annual average rate of 7.2 percent, rising to almost $5.4 billion in 2024.
Egypt's military remains a preeminent player in the MENA region, but Cairo's defense budget has suffered from exchange rate depreciation in wake of significant challenges facing the Egyptian economy. Annual Egyptian defense outlays totaled over $5 billion several years ago, but in 2024 the budget had a value of around $2.5 billion. 

Excluding Israel, the primary defense spenders in MENA rely on immense reserves of oil and natural gas to backstop funding for their Armed Forces. Complex security threats and budgetary power to make deals ensure that MENA governments have long been major players in defense markets, frequently signing multi-billion dollar deals to ensure their Armed Forces are stocked with modern equipment suitable for conventional warfare against a peer adversary. In recent years, that has entailed the acquisition of new combat aircraft, naval vessels, and air-defense equipment.

Israel is at present the region's only local operator of fifth-generation fighter jets, and in 2024 utilized its F-35s for airstrikes against Iran, demonstrating the jet's combat potential. While awaiting approval for their own purchases of the F-35, or the emergence of a competing platform on international markets, the Gulf militaries continue to acquire fourth-generation jets from American and European defense companies. Iran, meanwhile, is awaiting new Su-35s from Russia and Algeria is rumored to be the launch export customer for the Su-57. 

MENA militaries must also contend with critical shipping bottlenecks, which could leave their economies vulnerable in the event of a security contingency. Ansar Allah's campaign against commercial shipping in the Red Sea has led to a dramatic reduction in commercial cargo and tanker traffic through the Suez Canal, costing Egypt billions of dollars in lost receipts. Addressing this challenge will in part require the introduction of new naval combatant ships armed with modern air-defense equipment.

Ground-based air-defense is another critical priority. Israel's Iron Dome, tasked with intercepting short-range and low-altitude threats, engaged thousands of rockets fired from Gaza and Lebanon after October 7, 2023. Its longer-range surface-to-air missile systems were activated twice in 2024 to handle missile barrages fired from Iran. Considering the risk that their own militaries and cities could come under similar bombardment, MENA governments are aiming to establish their own versions of the Israeli integrated air-defense network.

The U.S. tends to be one of the top suppliers to the region, as Washington enjoys strong relations with many of the Middle East's governments. The U.S. approved over $13.3 billion in Foreign Military Sales and direct commercial agreements with MENA countries in 2022, the most recent year for which full data is available. 

But the region's governments prioritize political flexibility, making the Middle Eastern military market highly competitive. Just prior to the war in Ukraine, Russia reported that its annual volume of arms exports to the Middle East and North Africa stood at around $6 billion. Around a third of France's annual arms exports are destined for the Middle East, while around 40 percent of the United Kingdom's $10 billion in export orders in 2022 had the same destination. Beijing does not provide data on its military sales, but the increasing presence of its systems on Middle Eastern battlefields and parade grounds show a growing appetite in the region for Chinese equipment, as well.