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November 19, 2024

Welcome to this Tuesday edition of The D Brief, brought to you by Ben Watson with Audrey Decker. Share your newsletter tips, reading recommendations, or feedback here. And if you’re not already subscribed, you can do that here. 

Ukrainian troops attacked an alleged weapons depot inside Russia using U.S.-provided ATACMS missiles on Tuesday, several news outlets (including Forbes Ukraine and RBC Ukraine) reported Tuesday, citing Russian and Ukrainian officials. A U.S. official confirmed the development in remarks to the New York Times.

The targeted facility is near the town of Karachev in Russia’s southwestern Bryansk region, which is more than 70 miles from Ukraine’s borders. “As of 02:30 that night, 12 secondary explosions and detonations were recorded in the area of the target,” Ukraine’s military said on Telegram, without claiming ATACMS were used in the strike. Russia’s defense ministry claimed to have shot down five out of six ATACMS missiles, and said falling debris started a fire, but no one was harmed, the Associated Press and Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty report. 

View a map showing the possible range of ATACMS, published Tuesday by RFE/RL, here. 

Eye in the sky: Russia’s military has been fortifying airbases inside Russia since early October, a former Ukrainian soldier explained on social media Monday using satellite imagery. “Both the new and existing revetments are being reinforced with what appears to be concrete blocks for added protection,” he writes. “It’s unclear whether the Russians plan to add roof coverage or focus solely on strengthening the walls,” he added. 

Also: “Satellite images show major expansions at five complexes where Russia has made solid-fuel missile engines, indicating the Kremlin plans to significantly boost missile production as it pursues its war in Ukraine,” Reuters reported Monday, citing the work of Fabian Hinz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “The sites are in the Altai Republic in Siberia, Rostov in southern Russia, outside Moscow and St. Petersburg, and in Perm, in western Russia,” the wire service reports. 

Related reading: 

• “Putin Lowers Russia’s Threshold for Using Nuclear Arms,” the New York Times reported Tuesday; 
• “Hungarian official criticizes Biden decision allowing Ukraine to use US weapons to strike Russia,” AP reported from Budapest.

Developing: Early Sunday, a key data cable was severed along the Baltic Sea between Germany and Finland. Berlin and Helsinki released a joint statement in response to the findings, which they said “immediately raises suspicions of intentional damage [and] speaks volumes about the volatility of our times.”

“Our European security is not only under threat from Russia‘s war of aggression against Ukraine, but also from hybrid warfare by malicious actors,” the two countries’ foreign ministries said. “Safeguarding our shared critical infrastructure is vital to our security and the resilience of our societies,” they added. 

“The nearly 1,200-kilometre-long cable is the only direct link of its kind between Finland and Central Europe and runs alongside other important pieces of infrastructure, including gas pipelines and electricity cables,” Lithuania’s LRT TV reports. AP has a bit more.

Related reading: “NATO's newest members [Finland and Sweden] update their civil preparedness guides for risk of war,” AP reported separately Monday. 

Coming soon: Germany will reportedly begin delivering “several hundred” one-way attack drones to Ukraine in December, German newspaper Bild reported recently. An estimated 4,000 of these drones are expected overall, Ukrainska Pravda reported Monday. 

The drones have some degree of autonomy and, as a result, are allegedly less susceptible to electronic interference. They’re also reportedly much cheaper than U.S.-made Switchblade drones. More here. 

Also coming soon to Germany: “Last American soldier to leave Afghanistan to command US Army Europe,” Army Times reported Monday regarding Lt. Gen. Christopher Donahue who, if confirmed by the senate, would take over at the Wiesbaden-based garrison.  

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin signed a new defense pact with the Philippines to share classified intelligence during Austin’s fourth and likely final trip to the Pacific, Defense One’s Brad Peniston reports while traveling with the secretary. The agreement paves the way for a new coordination center at the Philippine Armed Force’s headquarters, giving U.S. personnel the space to plan and operate with the Philippine military. The two countries have shared information for decades, but the pact is set to streamline the process and usher greater cooperation. Read more, here.

Developing: U.S. Indo Pacific Command is building out a single network to connect nearly two dozen countries, Defense One’s Lauren C. Williams reports. The command’s new Mission Network will replace multiple bespoke networks into one platform to create a common operational picture, key for multilateral exercises. The streamlined network will be up and running by the end of next year, officials say. Read more, here

The Navy should turn to private repair shipyards to build submarines faster, one lawmaker argues. Hampered by supply chain problems, workforce challenges, and a lack of capacity, U.S. shipyards are behind on orders for the Navy’s Columbia and Virginia class submarines. And AUKUS, a pact to build subs for Australia, is driving more pressure on shipyards. There’s “untapped potential” at some private ship maintenance yards, which the Navy could utilize for new construction, Rep. Rob Wittman, R-Va, said at a recent Defense One event. Wittman also said the Navy needs to create incentives for shipyards to get work done on time, and penalties if they don’t. Read more, here. 

New rocket startup Dawn Aerospace reached supersonic flight with a prototype aircraft, Defense One’s Patrick Tucker reported Monday. The company’s Mk-11 Aurora craft completed a 66,000 foot ascent in 118.6 seconds during a November flight test. “Aurora became the highest climb rate aircraft ever built. The door is now wide open for Aurora to become the world's highest and fastest flying aircraft too,” company execs said. The test comes as the U.S. military races to develop highly maneuverable weapons that can reach hypersonic speeds. Read more, here.

Lastly today: In a one-word social media post Monday, President-elect Trump seemed to confirm that once he takes office, he intends to declare a national emergency so that he can use U.S. military “assets” to carry out his plans to deport millions of people from the United States. 

The apparent confirmation came in the form of a 4 a.m. reply to a conservative activist on Trump’s social media platform early Monday. “TRUE!!!” Trump wrote in response.

Background: According to Trump advisors, there are several facets or possibilities within their broad plans that could involve the U.S. military in some form or fashion. 

• One includes using military construction funds to build “vast holding facilities that would function as staging centers” for the people Trump wants to deport to await processing, according to his immigration advisor Stephen Miller. This possibility, with a procedural precedent in Trump’s first term, seems most likely.
• Another idea is to use active duty troops to patrol the border and arrest people, “invoking the [circa 1807] Insurrection Act to use troops as immigration agents,” as the New York Times explained in August. This would seemingly be more difficult, as it would rely on the consent of congress to a larger degree than redistributing military construction funds. 
• Relatedly, both active duty and National Guard troops already assist border patrol agents along the U.S.-Mexico border; however, their work is principally bureaucratic and logistical and does not involve active arrests. Trump’s team appears eager to change that. In the meantime, as Oklahoma Sen. James Lankford said Monday of possible changes in immigration enforcement under Trump, “If the National Guard is providing transportation, they do that a lot already.”
• Yet another idea from Trump himself is to use the Insurrection Act to have federal troops “get crime out of our cities,” with New York and Chicago, in particular. In a manner similar to Travis Bickle of the gritty 1970s film “Taxi Driver,” Trump said those cities are “crime dens,” and their Democrat governors are chiefly responsible. “You look at what is happening to our country — we cannot let it happen any longer,” Trump said at a campaign rally in Iowa. “Because you are not supposed to be involved in that, you just have to be asked by the governor or the mayor to come in; the next time, I am not waiting,” Trump said. 

Expert reax: “To my knowledge, there are no ‘national emergency’ authorities which permit the US military to carry out deportations,” said Aaron Reichlin-Melnick of the American Immigration Council. “The National Emergencies Act is a specific law which unlocks specific authorities to do specific things — a president doesn't declare a national emergency and then become king. And ‘use the military for deportations’ isn't one of those specific things,” he said. 

“Last time, Trump invoked a specific emergency authority to unlock military construction funding — and direct more troops to do logistical support at the border,” said Reichlin-Melnick. That’s most likely the Trump administration’s play in 2025 as well, he suggested; but nobody really knows just yet. 

One big problem for media covering plans like these from Trump and his advisors: They almost always lack specifics, and most seem to prefer “mak[ing] grandiose pronouncements that are aimed at triggering the libs and making headlines,” Reichlin-Melnick pointed out. 

One last thing about national emergencies: The U.S. is currently under more than three dozen of them, one of which goes back to 1979 (PDF). View all past and present national emergencies via Wikipedia here. 

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On this day in 1943, the Nazis killed at least 6,000 Jews after a failed uprising at the Janowska concentration camp in modern-day Lviv, Ukraine.