A long-sought European defense ‘awakening’ has arrived, EUCOM commander says

ASPEN, Colorado—Europe is finally getting serious about defense, and should receive more, not less, transatlantic investment and engagement, the top U.S. commander in the region said Thursday.

“This is exactly the partner we've been looking for for three decades. It's exactly the time when a U.S. contribution will produce the most value, [when] the most value will come from U.S. participation,” Gen. Chris Cavoli told the Aspen Security Forum, to some applause. “This is exactly the moment when American interests will be advanced most by American continued participation” in NATO. 

The bottom line: “This is a different Europe from what we complained about for years.”

Cavoli, who leads U.S. European Command and is NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, made his remarks in the context of growing skepticism about the alliance and its members among the American right wing. In February, U.S presidential candidate Donald Trump said he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want'' to any NATO member who doesn’t spend at least 2 percent of GDP on national defense. 

Cavoli didn’t mention Trump and did not dispute that a 2 percent contribution was vital for all NATO members. But he did say that the discussion within the alliance had changed dramatically from where it was just a few years ago. 

“Many nations are concluding that 2% is not enough, that they're going to have to go higher than that,” he said. “Poland is spending upwards of 4% right now. The UK is coming up to 2.5% as their announced goal. I think we'll see that across the board.”

Cavoli also said Europe’s growing commitment to its own defense goes beyond budgets. He noted Germany’s recent decision to allow the United States to deploy SM-6 Tomahawk cruise missiles and new hypersonic weapons to the country.

“It's really emblematic of, you know, Europe awakening,” he said. 

The decision made little splash in Germany—a far cry from the sort of public protest that might have welled up in the 1980s, said Jens Plötner, the foreign and security policy advisor to the country’s chancellor.

“It's just an emblematic sign of how much we are living in this, what we call zeitenwende, or ‘sea change moment,’ and where we have been observing Russia building up capacities in the Kaliningrad enclave, which have the capacity to reach our capitals in minutes,” Plötner said at the Aspen conference.

Next, Cavoli said, Europe should build up its defense industry.

“We terribly need the European Union's efforts to stimulate the industrial base,” he said.

The next era of Ukraine support

Cavoli said European countries and the United States and U.S. allies must also continue to supply Ukraine with arms and other assistance—and to work to increase their contributions. 

“The outcome on the ground in Ukraine is terribly, terribly important—vital to future European and global security,” he said, adding that Ukrainian success on the battlefield “depends on us, and that's going to require us to generate and produce more equipment than we were contemplating perhaps two years ago.”

Despite Europe’s increased focus on its own defense, many Ukraine supporters have noted that Europe’s support for Ukraine appears to be softening. The recently announced draft of the German defense budget, for instance, essentially halves the amount of funds available for Ukraine to roughly 4 billion euro. 

Plötner described that number as “the floor.” He said that he couldn’t predict what the German parliament would ultimately do. 

But he noted that European and other governments had been working to secure Ukraine funding via other means: by appropriating Russian money stored across Europe. In June, the members of the G7 agreed to give Kyiv a $50 billion line of credit backed by Russian assets. 

“I think the message is clear: Ukraine is out of the danger zone to finance its defense spending next year,” Plötner said. “And that's the double message. It's the message to Ukraine, to our partners in Kyiv, but, just as importantly, it's a message to Moscow: You cannot wait us out.”