NATO summit a mixed success, even with decidedly less drama

After Ukraine-related tensions nearly derailed last year’s NATO summit in Vilnius, U.S. and other diplomats worked hard to ensure that last week’s meeting in Washington, D.C., went off with far less drama, three European diplomats said.

There were “no big surprises, because [it] was well-prepared in advance,” one diplomat said, speaking, like the others, on the condition of anonymity.  

Negotiations began almost as soon as the Vilnius summit ended a year ago, a second diplomat said. A third diplomat said their country and the United States began consultations over NATO summit goals within a few months of the 2023 event’s conclusion. 

“This administration really didn’t want to repeat the same situation,” the second diplomat said. “They prepared that well in advance and had many, many meetings with Ukrainians.” 

The second diplomat’s country also held touch-points with Ukraine to “manage expectations,” they said. 

The third diplomat praised the engagement, even if all their aspirations for the summit were not met.

“It's not very common that the U.S. starts one year before, thinking through their priorities for NATO,” they said. “The process was there.” 

In a further sign of how seriously the U.S. took the summit, the White House took point on the negotiations rather than letting the U.S’s NATO office manage it, the second diplomat added. 

Flashback to Vilnius

The 2023 summit saw dissension among alliance members, and between the alliance and Ukraine over how NATO would address Kyiv’s desire for membership. 

The U.S. initially wanted to focus on Swedish accession to NATO, rather than on Ukraine, one diplomat previously told Defense One. Other allies were also “less ambitious,” another diplomat agreed. In the end, the U.S. settled on language that Ukraine would be issued an invitation for membership when the allies agreed that the conditions for membership had been met.

Before this language was even finalized, though, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attacked the wording for failing to give Ukraine a clear timeline for membership. His tweet of July 11, 2023, left the U.S. “furious,” the Washington Post reported. Amid the tumult, decisions at the Vilnius summit were made at “the last minute,” said Eric Ciaramella, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 

This time around, Zelenskyy praised the summit’s Ukraine-related resolutions, citing “concrete successes.” 

Ukrainian presidential chief-of-staff Andriy Yermak similarly framed the Washington summit as a success, even while pressing for an invitation to NATO. Ukrainian leaders pushed U.S. officials to lift restrictions on U.S.-donated weapons to allow Ukraine to hit Russian air bases, but levied no harsh criticism over the matter. 

European leaders likewise issued no public dissents, even if individual leaders expressed eagerness to ramp up defense spending across the alliance. 

Mixed success

Despite the general consensus, experts graded the NATO summit this year as a mixed success. 

On the one hand, NATO announced that Ukrainian progress toward membership in the alliance was irreversible, promised a new NATO Ukraine command, and said it would send more air defense weapons to Ukraine. NATO also committed member nations to delivering 40 billion euros worth of military aid to Ukraine within the next year.

Still, the summit was not a major victory for Ukraine, experts said, noting that the language stopped short of the invitation or timeline that Zelensky pressed for at Vilnius. The 40 billion euro commitment is also itself slightly less notable than at first glance, in that it represents the average amount of yearly military aid given to Ukraine since the start of Russia’s full scale invasion in February 2022. 

With the summit’s close, Ukraine’s leaders will go back to a country that has gained breathing room thanks to U.S. military aid deliveries, but which may once again face a cut-off of U.S. aid. On Monday, presidential candidate Donald Trump—who as president improperly withheld Ukrainian aid—announced his running mate: Ohio’s Sen. J.D. Vance. Like his prospective boss, Vance has publicly argued for cutting off aid to Ukraine.