Ukraine military-aid donors aim to set Kyiv up through 2027, Pentagon says

The dozens of nations sending military aid to Ukraine will attempt to map out a way to sustain the wartorn country’s defensive efforts through 2027, a senior U.S. defense official said Tuesday ahead of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s final meeting with the group.

At Thursday’s planned meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, the leaders of the group’s eight “capability coalitions” will “need to endorse roadmaps that articulate Ukraine's air force, armor, artillery, de-mining, drone, integrated air and missile defense, information technology and maritime security needs and objectives through 2027. These roadmaps are intended to enable donors to plan for and support Ukraine sustainably into the future," the official told reporters.

As well, “You will hear a very substantial announcement of another tranche” of U.S. military arms and gear to be donated via presidential drawdown authority, the official said. 

Still, “more than a couple” billion dollars of approved presidential drawdown authority will remain for President-elect Donald Trump’s national security team to distribute as they see fit, the official said. 

Meanwhile, the official said, U.S. Transportation Command is in a “surge operation” to get promised aid to Kyiv in the coming days and weeks.

Additionally, new research study out this week shows that journalistic focus on Ukraine could play a big role in continued U.S. public support for aid. 

Thursday's UDCG meeting  will be its 25th—and Austin’s last as defense secretary. He launched the group soon after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, drawing on “his experience and contributions to the [Defeat ISIS coalition] and his deep belief that when you bring allies and partners together, the sum will be much greater than the parts,” the official said. 

The group’s 50-some member nations have collectively sent Ukraine more than $126 billion in security assistance, the official said. The United States alone has sent $61.4 billion in military aid, including arms and equipment worth $27.7 billion from Pentagon stockpiles, according to a Dec. 30 State Department release.

Ukrainian officials have frequently complained that promised aid has been slow to arrive, and that some weapons, such as long-range ATACMS missiles, were delivered years after Kyiv requested them, out of U.S. escalation fears that did not bear out. 

Asked about Kyiv’s complaints, the official said that while the Pentagon could move fairly quickly to ship items from its stockpiles, things provided under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative must be specially bought and modified for Ukraine’s use. Such items include armored vehicles, drones, and counter-drone gear. 

“They have to be built and produced and then provided,” the official said. “Because Ukraine needs them for the battlefield, there may be some of those vehicles that I referred to which need refurbishment, which may not be delivered, but the vast majority of what has been announced will be delivered this month.” 

It’s unclear whether the United States will continue to participate in the Ukraine Defense Contact Group after Donald Trump becomes president. Trump was impeached in 2019 for improperly withholding aid to Ukraine, tried to block Congressional approval for new aid in early 2024, and several months later vowed to cut aid if elected. But in December, officials around Trump told the Financial Times that the new White House team will likely continue to provide aid while also demanding greater defense spending by European NATO allies.

The senior defense officials said on Tuesday that Thursday’s meeting would show how the group will enable European countries to take on a larger role in supporting Ukraine regardless of further U.S. participation or leadership. 

Media could shape US support

The extent of future U.S. aid to Ukraine likely hinges, at least in part, on how the media chooses to continue covering the war, according to research recently published in the journal Humanities and Social Sciences Communications. Coverage of the civilian death toll of Russian attacks—which UN and other estimates put at nearly 12,000—will be particularly important, according to a paper out this week from Alon Kraitzman, Tom Etienne, and Dolores Albarracin.

The researchers used five experiments to gauge the impact of empathy on U.S. public support for wartorn countries.  

In one experiment, 800 participants were given various amounts of information about civilian casualties. Those who saw casualty details showed increased empathy, with 78% scoring high on a five-item index, compared to 51% in the control group. Of those in the high-empathy group, 82% supported continued U.S. military aid to Ukraine, versus 59% among the lower-empathy group.

Another experiment divided 1,200 respondents into two groups: one that was exposed to detailed accounts of Ukrainian civilian casualties and the other given neutral information about the conflict. Among those exposed to civilian casualty narratives, 72% expressed support for increased U.S. aid to Ukraine, compared to 48% in the neutral group. 

“Our research highlights the crucial role of media in shaping continued support for foreign intervention, indicating how empathy-inducing reporting on foreign conflicts can increase and sustain support for US involvement,” the researchers write.