Al-Shabab Attacks a Symbol of Kenya's Economic Progress

NAIROBI, Kenya—Kenya’s economic boom is only as secure as its borders.

East Africa’s powerhouse was reminded of this over the weekend as heavily armed gunmen linked to a Somali Islamic militant group stormed one of Nairobi’s most exclusive malls, killing 68 people and taking hostages as the world watched the carnage.

Their target was not accidental: the shopping mall is a symbol of Kenya’s growing prosperity. And the individuals attacked were a cross-section of those who participated most fully in the economic growth. (Kenya’s GDP increased 4.6% in 2012, and 5.2% in the first quarter of 2013.) The attack was timed for Saturday morning to inflict maximum damage and destruction and targeted the high-profile Westgate mall typically frequented by expatriates, diplomats, and affluent Kenyans. These Kenyans, who benefited from economic advancement under former president Mwai Kibaki, have recently enjoyed an increase in spending power, and together with expatriates, have driven demand for property, luxury goods, fine dining opportunities, and the arts and services.

But the attack made clear that the prosperity hasn’t been accompanied by sufficient investment in security and intelligence gathering. This was the nightmare terrorist and hostage scenario that security analysts and observers had been warning of ever since Kenya intervened militarily in Somalia in October 2011 to wage war on al-Shabab. The Somali terrorist group ostensibly claimed responsibility for the attack in a tweet on Saturday evening,

“We have been in the crosshairs of these guys,” says Abdullahi Halakhe, an independent Horn of Africa analyst. “They have been warning us about this since 2011. We have not taken this seriously enough and we have underestimated their capacity. This marks an extension of the al-Shabab battleground from Mogadishu and into Nairobi.”