The D Brief: The horse race for the Pentagon; Flournoy out, Carter in?; Hagel’s ear for the military and taste for Runzas; Odierno on Iraq; And a bit more.

The horse race is now in full stride, but who’s running? Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel’s resignation Monday naturally began speculation about just who would replace him. Two names floated to the top immediately: Michele Flournoy and Ash Carter. But Flournoy, the former policy chief for the Pentagon who would be the first woman to lead the Department, bowed out yesterday, according to a report in Foreign Policy.

Indeed, when Obama was choosing between Hagel and Flournoy and Carter two years ago, it was really a horse race between Hagel and Carter – the White House had already scrapped the notion of her nom by the time the choice was made – that could mean she wasn’t really ever in the running this time around. (Some believe Flournoy would never have taken a job she could only have for two years. But this might have been her only shot – had she been offered the job now and taken it, she would be in a good spot to keep it if Hillary Clinton wins in 2016. But if she is indeed interested in the job, the only way Flournoy gets it now is if Clinton wins).

That leaves Carter, the former Deputy Secretary of Defense, as a strong contender – but not the only one. He’s running against a dark horse candidate which could be any a number of people.

ABC’s @jonkarl: “SCOOP: The White House is looking at Jeh Johnson as a candidate to replace Hagel as SecDef. I’m told McDonough is not under consideration.”

Some folks said Johnson, the former Pentagon lawyer and now head of the Department of Homeland Security was more of a vanity float, downplaying that Johnson was a legit candidate for the job. And as a close adviser to two other defense secretaries, he might be out.

Other trial balloons:

Ray Mabus: The Navy Secretary has long been thought to want the Pentagon’s top job, and as a former governor (to Mississippi) and ambassador (to Saudi Arabia) he likely has the executive skills to slip in. John McHugh, the Army Secretary, is seen as a quiet but effective leader.

Debbie James, the Air Force Secretary has prior Pentagon experience and could also be under consideration, but just returned to the Pentagon. Bob Work, now the Deputy Secretary of Defense, who by virtue of his current position would have to be under consideration, could also be in the running.

Perennial Faves: Richard Danzig, John Hamre.

There are signs that this White House wasn’t completely prepared for the sudden resignation of Hagel, even if Chief of Staff Denis McDonough and National Security Adviser Susan Rice are the ones who orchestrated it. When Donald Rumsfeld was fired by Bush 43 in 2006, the White House was ready to go with Bob Gates on the same day -– Nov. 8, 2006. (WikiNews, here.).

This White House tends to sack folks and then searches for a replacement – witness the resignation of Eric Shinseki at the VA. Although the White House may nominate someone as early as late this week or early next, it remains unclear how much Obama’s people mapped out the change at the Pentagon.

Don’t be fooled by imitations. Defense One’s own Kedar Pavgi spotted on Twitter that Michele Flournoy appeared to have a new handle – @MFlournoyOffic. But it’s fake, and Flournoy told us she’s in the process of trying to get it shut down.

But if the White House is looking for someone John McCain likes, they’ll have to strongly consider Ash Carter. Here’s what Sen. John McCain, the Arizona Republican who will be central to the Senate Armed Service’s Committee’s consideration of the SecDef nominee, said about Ash Carter in October 2013 when Carter announced he was leaving the Pentagon. “…In my view, what is just as important as what Ash has done is how he has done it. With regard to the Department’s procurement practices, Ash articulated a cogent strategy to improve the Department’s buying power and empowered good, talented people throughout the acquisition workforce who have long been concerned about government inefficiency to implement that strategy effectively.

“Indeed, it could be said that Ash’s most significant legacy as the Pentagon’s chief weapon’s purchaser is that he has helped to force the Department to be as skilled in buying products and services as industry is in selling them… my working relationship with Ash has always been respectful, candid, clear, and productive.”

But, fair point from Dave Barno - @DWBarno76: “As next SecDef field narrows: does the POTUS really have access to the BEST talent? How can there only be 2 or 3 choices in a 317m nation?”

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Missouri Governor Jay Nixon called up 2,200 National Guard members to help quell possible violence in Ferguson on Tuesday. A fellow Guardsman and friend to The D Brief tells us that makes a brigade-sized number of "weekend warriors" now on the ground in Ferguson. AP, here.

Jihadists tried to capitalize on inflaming racial tensions surrounding the Ferguson protests, according to the extremist monitoring org SITE Intelligence Group. More here.

Man bites dog story: Chuck Hagel will have a legacy as the Pentagon chief who advocated for and listened to the military and to veterans. He was accused of being too tight with his generals, and the White House didn’t like that. But there was another outgrowth of that  - veterans groups and military service organizations said that he was a Defense Secretary who really listened to them for once. Defense One’s Lubold: “Hagel arrived in the Pentagon as a soldier’s defense secretary, a former Army sergeant and Vietnam vet with the shrapnel still in his chest to prove it. And even if Hagel had problems articulating the White House’s elusive strategic goals on a world stage, he was most comfortable talking to the troops for whom he worked quietly to advocate. And now after his resignation Monday, veterans groups and military service organizations said they worry his departure could leave some of their issues in limbo.

“…Hagel had to cut a Pentagon budget that meant some of the generous benefits for military personnel and their families had to be cut as well. Hagel had to socialize the loss of those benefits, from smaller housing allowances to a reduced commissary program to lowered base pay with many veterans groups.

He liked Runzas: “Military advocates said he took their issues seriously, meeting with dozens of veterans service groups and military service organizations quarterly. And every month, he hosted a lunch in his office for enlisted military personnel in which one of his favorite foods, Runzas, the bread pocket filled with beef or pork and a traditional favorite in his native Nebraska, were brought in.”

Said Joyce Raezer, executive director of the National Military Family Association: “Secretary Hagel was very unique in how he reached out to military people and associations.”

And although there was only so much Hagel could do about the shrinking Pentagon budget, he listened to these groups, she said: “He couldn’t do much about it, but at least he listened and asked questions about the impact [policy proposals] would have on service members and their families.” Read the rest of our story here.

Also in Defense One: Kedar Pavgi traced the significant events in Hagel’s nearly two-year arc as SecDef, beginning with the confirmation hearings in February 2013 and wrapping up with a recent poll out this month showing Hagel’s his approval rating clocked in at a lowly 26 percent among NatSec workers. Read that here.

“President Obama” penned a stinging guest article in The Duffel Blog yesterday. In it he laid out some context for Hagel’s departure: “Now, let me be clear, ISIL—which I must point out does not represent Islam in any way, shape, or form—has arisen in the power vacuum that Chuck singlehandedly created under what some folks might call 'my orders.' Hagel suggested that we put boots on the ground to effectively fight them. I call that a failure to adapt.” Read the rest, here.

Noting: We like to be as transparent as can be here at The D Brief and an anonymous Tweeter called us out on a mistake we made recently in which we suggested that an item we had about the Pentagon’s Matt Spence was exclusive. It wasn’t. But we didn’t knowingly say it was, just a mistake. Indeed it ran in other newsletters which shall remain nameless. We also note that it can be perilous to run anonymous commentary about political officials and on that we pledge to be more careful. Here’s to you, K-Man, whomever you are.

In a follow to yesterday’s rescue mission out of eastern Yemen, we're learning the raid involved about two-dozen U.S. commandos and a few Yemeni troops flying by helo to Hadhramaut province, bordering Saudi Arabia. Eric Schmitt for The New York Times: “The commandos then hiked some distance in the dark to a mountainside cave, where they surprised the militants holding the captives. An ensuing shootout left seven of the Qaeda militants dead, the officials said. The hostages were then evacuated in helicopters.” More here.

Also, we called it initially a “release” yesterday when in fact it was a rescue. And early media reporting on this raid yesterday indicated that an American was rescued, but U.S. officials said later yesterday that was not the case.

After Air Force’s Director of Public Affairs Brig. Gen. Kathleen Cook’s Twitter account appeared to RT a Fox News report about Obama’s second term, we got this from an Air Force public affairs officer who is not directly involved with the issue, who offered a plausible explanation for why Cook’s Twitter account might have re-Tweeted something not so kind about the commander-in-chief (that his next two years would be a “disaster.”).

Meantime, the blog John Q. Public deconstructs the problem and questions the plausibility of the notion that Cook’s Tweeter machine was taken over by gremlins, here.

Still, here’s that bit from that Air Force public affairs officer: “Total speculation on my part... But I can't imagine she actually operates her own twitter account.  I would venture to bet there are a handful of minions who have the login info.  It's the same handle that [former PAO Director Less Kodlick] had... so it's not like it is tied to her.  It's tied to her job. I would further venture to guess that somebody has both their personal Twitter and her twitter logged into the same device.  I have 3 accounts on mine... two official and one personal.  Somebody with a total lack of attention to detail likely retweeted the errant tweet thinking they were logged into their own account.”

The Assad regime killed nearly 100 yesterday, more than half of them civilians, in airstrikes on the ISIS stronghold of Raqqa, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said yesterday. AP, here.

NATO’s air campaign in Libya offers 5 lessons for contemporary debate about how to destroy ISIS, RAND Corporation’s Karl P. Mueller writes in Defense One: “…amidst their differences the two operations share important similarities, including the scale of the enemy, the nature of the air operations, and both campaigns’ focus on protecting civilians from brutal regimes. At least five lessons of the Libyan air campaign deserve greater attention today…”

Two female suicide bombers killed more than 45 people in a crowded market in northeast Nigeria on Tuesday, AFP reports here.

The government center building in downtown Ramadi, long a symbol, is poised to fall to the Islamic State. McClatchy’s Susannah George in Irbil: “Islamic State fighters on Tuesday penetrated to the core of Ramadi, the provincial capital of Iraq’s largest province, prompting local security officials to warn that the city was on the verge of falling to the extremists. Such a gain would be the Islamic State’s most significant victory in months. Officials said that extremist fighters were only tens of yards away from entering the main government compound.” More here.

Ray Odierno just returned from Iraq and Kuwait, his second trip back there since the end of the Iraq war. Army Chief of Staff Gen. Ray Odierno, in a statement on his trip: "I am extremely pleased with the dedication of our conventional and special operating forces as they work to advise and assist the Iraqi Army and Peshmerga Forces.  There is still much work to do, but steady progress is being made against ISIL.  As I've stated before, the fight against ISIL is a long-term one that will require a strong international coalition.”

And he added this plug for the Army: “This visit with our Soldiers and Leaders here in Iraq has reinforced for me the adaptability of men and women in uniform and provides another example of the diverse capabilities of our Army to simultaneously respond to multiple contingencies around the globe."

The U.S. is looking to add an unspecified number of troops to its broadening 2015 Afghanistan mission in what’s described as a “bridging solution” until other NATO members finalize their own troops numbers for next year. Reuters’ Jessica Donati from Kabul, here.

The “hardliners” look-ahead: Pursuit of a “comprehensive agreement” on Iran’s nuclear program doesn’t have to be the enemy of a “good and effective” one that still limits Tehran in a way that pleases the P5+1, writes the Arms Control Association’s Nonproliferation Policy Director Kelsey Davenport in this 2015 look-ahead where the hardliners in Tehran and on Capital Hill win—and most everyone else loses.

The D Brief corrects – Yesterday we ran a statement from Mike Breen, the executive director of the Truman National Security Project and the Center for National Policy. But we called him “executive editor.” Freudian! Apologies for the error.

Why America can’t ignore its nukes – by Eldridge Colby for the NYT’s op-eds the other day, here.

The 1st Cav’s Iron Horse Brigade out of Fort Hood, Texas, has been working with about a dozen and a half NATO members in some heavily-mechanized deterrence drills in Germany called Combined Resolve. And there are old school, fundamental reasons for NATO practicing with so many tanks despite the prominence of insurgencies and counter-terrorism in the 21st century. But those old school reasons can seem out of place given the “little green men” factor in Ukraine’s disintegration this year.

So The D Brief’s Watson asked Brig. Gen. Chris Cavoli, who runs the U.S. Army’s largest overseas training command, how a rising antagonist like Vladimir Putin is altering the way Europe’s armies practice for war. Cavoli said the Army has been training “against the hybrid warfare problem set” according to a program launched in 2012 involving “insurgent, para-military and criminal threat networks.” Which is all well and good on paper, but what does that mean for Article 5 collective defense? Chris shared these recent takeaways from the alliance’s 18-nation wargaming exercise Combined Resolve:

The chances of fratricide are high. And this problem results, Chris said, “When you combine a force, some of the members of that force wind up having former Soviet Warsaw Pact equipment… and this is not an unrealistic situation in the world today.” The workaround for worries about errant air strikes, said Chris, is going to be the sort of clumsily-simple, big upside-down V in white tape, for example. However:

The Danes have proven to be remarkable scouts “in a way that we just don’t see in our Army,” Cavoli said. “A company-sized element arrayed 13 observation posts, and in the course of the exercise, delivered 300 spot reports on the enemy formation. This was fantastic output.” Which points to the skills honed over the past 13 years in Afghanistan, where the drawn-down war posed existential questions about the alliance’s purpose before Russia annexed Crimea in March, shedding new light on the fact that:

Deterrence has always been NATO’s raison d'etre. “One of the reasons there’s tanks and Bradleys is because that’s the contribution we make to the NATO response force and the way we make it is by rotating the European rotational force out of the RAF forward,” Cavoli said. U.S. Army Europe provides the alliance an airborne brigade, a medium-weight Stryker brigade and via the RAF, the heavy brigade that Lt. Gen. Hodges said Monday he’d love to see beefed up with more tanks.

On the heels of Monday’s U.S. Army Europe announcement, expect even more alliance tanks to arrive in Eastern Europe soon. France is sending an armored unit to exercise with NATO troops in Poland, the French defense minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said yesterday from Warsaw. Reuters, here.

Civilians! Or anyone… answer these questions to determine which branch of service you’d belong to, here.

SecDef Chuck Hagel plans to complete the selection of the follow-on to the Navy’s Littoral Combat Ship, the Small Surface Combatant, before departing office. Sam LaGrone with U.S. Naval Institute News: “In January, the Defense Department issued a memo directing the Navy to examine either an up-gunned variant of either the current Lockheed Martin Freedom or Austal USA Independence LCS hulls (or both), a foreign design or an entirely new ship for the SSC… The new version of the ship will likely include a 3D air defense radar, some type of offensive anti-air missile and perhaps an over-the-horizon anti-surface missile—which both Austal and Lockheed have included in offerings for foreign military sales.” More here.

Colombian FARC rebels freed two soldiers it had been holding, promising to release the general it captured 10 days ago. Reuters’ with more from Bogota, here.