Will the situation in Ukraine prompt the WH to act?; Pakistan nudging the Taliban for peace; Kirby to be replaced by a civilian; What images reveal of China’s plans; And a bit more.
Ukraine’s Poroshenko wants the U.N. to be deployed to monitor the cease-fire. Reuters this hour: “Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has called for U.N. peacekeepers to be deployed to monitor a ceasefire in east Ukraine, a proposal that pro-Russia rebels swiftly said would be in breach of a peace deal.
“At an emergency meeting late on Wednesday, Ukraine's national security and defense council approved Poroshenko's request, a clear sign of Ukraine's concerns after pro-Russian rebels seized a town after a ceasefire took effect on Sunday.” Read the rest here.
BBC overnight: “[Poroshenko] said 80% of Ukraine's troops left on Wednesday morning after several days of fierce fighting. Russia said Ukrainian forces had tried to fight their way out of the town after being encircled but Mr. Poroshenko insisted they were never surrounded. The rebel advance on Debaltseve, which came in spite of the recent ceasefire agreement, has been widely condemned.” More here.
The retreat from eastern Ukraine raises serious doubts about that ceasefire. The NYT’s Andrew Kramer and David Herszenhorn in Ukraine: “Ukrainian soldiers were forced to fight their way out of the embattled town of Debaltseve in the early hours of Wednesday, casting further doubt on the credibility of a days-old cease-fire and eroding the promise of ending a war in Europe that has killed more than 5,000 people.
“…If there was a shred of good news for Mr. Poroshenko, it was that by avoiding capture, the soldiers who made it out also avoided handing the rebels a powerful bargaining chip. But from the harrowing accounts of survivors of the retreat, that success was purchased at a terrible price.
“…The order to retreat was kept secret until the last minute, and soldiers were told to prepare in 10 minutes and pile into the beds of troop transport trucks, according to Albert Sardaryen, 22, a medic who made the journey.” More here.
Will the broken cease-fire re-animate the debate over the U.S. providing lethal assistance to the Ukrainians? Newly-installed Defense Secretary Ash Carter has said he is inclined to recommend arming Ukraine, but any such proposal is very much in limbo. Pentagon Press Secretary Rear Adm. John Kirby to reporters yesterday: “…it certainly factors into the discussions. There's no question about that…But I -- to say that it's going to tip a scale one way or another, I think, would be to overstate it…we've got to be mindful of unintended consequences here of every decision that we make.”
Navel contemplation: Obama practices strategic patience while Putin presses ahead with his invasion. The BLUF to the WaPo’s lead editorial this morning: “…European leaders will not stop Russian aggression without a determined U.S. president. Ukrainians must be wondering how much more of their country must fall to Russian troops for Mr. Obama to set aside his ‘strategic patience.’” More here.
The firepower Ukraine needs (multiple launch rocket systems would get Putin’s attention), by Bob Scales in the WSJ’s op-ed pages, here.
Three reasons the U.S. shouldn’t arm Ukraine, by Ishaan Tharoor in the WaPo a couple days ago, here.
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His own man: Likely Republican 2016 contender Jeb Bush attempted to distance himself from his brother and President Obama yesterday, but made little progress in the way of articulating a different path forward for American foreign policy, Defense One’s politics editor Molly O’Toole reports: “"'Under this administration, we are inconsistent and indecisive. We have lost the trust and the confidence of our friends. We definitely no longer inspire fear in our enemies,' he said speaking before the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
"His positions sounded familiar to those employed by Republicans in the last two elections against Obama, in which they relied on a retread of generic ‘stronger on defense’ rhetoric but struggled to distinguish their policies from the Democrat’s... But Bush made sure to repeatedly use the phrase ‘radical Islamic terrorism,’ as conservatives have been demanding for weeks. ‘The more we try and ignore that reality, the less likely it is that we’re going to develop an effective strategy.’” Catch the rest of that, here.
Did Jeb’s team gives his brother’s friends the snub? Just two of the founding 25 members of the influential Dubya-era Project for the New American Century are on Jeb’s foreign policy team, WaPo’s Al Kamen points out: “[F]ormer undersecretary of state Paula Dobriansky and our old pal, former deputy secretary of defense and then president of the World Bank Paul Wolfowitz.” More on Jeb’s crew, here.
It’s time to face down a new kind of biological warfare: Terrorists denying citizens in remote locations access to vaccines, Melissa Hersh of the Truman National Security Project and Michael Hopmeier, president of the consulting firm Unconventional Concepts, Inc., argue in Defense One, here.
On day two of the CVE Summit, President Obama tried to raise the profile of the non-military fight against ISIS, urging world leaders to “amplify the voices of peace and tolerance and inclusion,” especially online. NYT’s Julie Hirschfeld Davis, here.
Why the incredibly low DOD profile at the summit? Military Times’ Oriana Pawlyk, here.
The Nigerian military killed more than 300 militants from Boko Haram in a take-no-prisoners counter-offensive. ABC (Australia): “…Boko Haram meanwhile vowed to make voting impossible in Nigeria's upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections after a spate of deadly suicide attacks in the country's violence-wracked north-east. Operations to end the deadly insurgency were cited as the reason to delay polling by six weeks to March 28 but the elections chief ruled out further postponement as ‘unconstitutional.’” More here.
The NYT’s Adam Nossiter in Dakar, Senegal: “Chad’s army has made its deepest push yet into Nigeria in a three-front regional war against Boko Haram, entering a town 50 miles from a beleaguered Nigerian state capital that has been surrounded for months by the militant group, Nigerian security officials said Wednesday.” More here.
No U.S. “silver bullets” for Nigeria’s Goodluck Jonathan. On the Nigerian campaign trail, President Jonathan is predictably foisting much of his Boko Haram problem on the U.S., Alice Hunt Friend of the Center for a New American Security, writing in War on the Rocks, here.
America’s ambassador to Cameroon Michael Stephen Hoza said the U.S. is working on a logistic pipeline to help officials in Yaoundé fight Boko Haram. Reuters, here.
Meantime, the commander of U.S. Special Forces operations in Africa, Maj. Gen. James Linder said the U.S. will share innovative comms equipment with African allies as part of its upcoming “Flintlock” counterterrorism exercises. Reuters’ Daniel Flynn, here. And for more on Flintlock, head here.
Pentagon Press Secretary Kirby will step down in the next couple weeks to be replaced by a civilian spokesman for new Defense Secretary Ash Carter. The move was long-rumored but Kirby confirmed that speculation yesterday at the Pentagon.
…Carter may have wanted to pick his spokesperson, but Carter’s decision to replace Kirby appeared to be more based on the fact that the admiral is a member of the military, and not due to concerns about his performance as a press secretary. Widely liked by reporters, Kirby was seen as a credible mouthpiece for the Pentagon, someone who wasn’t inclined to spin reporters as much as inform them.
…U.S. service members are expected to be apolitical, and so having a spokesperson who is in uniform was seen by some as problematic. Critics, which included other military officers inside the Pentagon as well as civilians outside the Pentagon, believed that the White House viewed having someone in uniform defend its policies gave them more credibility. Others thought that Kirby was used as a political pawn and that over time it could not only blur the lines between civil-military relations but make the military look weak for defending potentially unpopular policies.
Kirby said he has steered clear of politics and credited reporters at the Pentagon for asking questions that were more about strategy and operations and policy, but not politics.
It’s unclear if Kirby will retire or will be reassigned somewhere else inside the Navy. But there are very few places inside the Navy for a two-star admiral with a communications background. Kirby, who had served as the Chief of Navy Information, or CHINFO, wouldn’t return to that office since Rear Adm. Dawn Cutler was promoted to that position last year and just presided yesterday on a ribbon cutting for the new CHINFO offices at the Pentagon. More of Lubold’s story in Defense One, here.
Chinese construction moves fast on the Spratly Islands, newly-released images reveal. Check out a very neat interactive on the issue’s developments over the past year—with stunning before/after photos—here. Or read this succinct, granular analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Mira Rapp-Hooper, over here.
Daniel Russel, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs: “The sheer acreage of China’s reclamation work over the past two to three years dwarfs anything and everything other claimants have done by many times over.” More on the tensions being stoked by China from WSJ's Jeremy Page and Julian Barnes, here.
The White House’s Lisa Monaco has a plan on cyber. InsideCybersecurity’s Chris Castelli: “Following President Obama's cybersecurity summit last week in Silicon Valley, the administration will aim to develop new cyber policies along four lines highlighted by his homeland security adviser, according to White House cybersecurity coordinator Michael Daniel.
“…The areas are boosting basic defenses for critical infrastructure by using tools such as the federal framework of cybersecurity standards; strengthening the United States' ability to disrupt, respond to and effectively manage U.S. responses to cyber threats; enhancing international cooperation to hold cyber criminals accountable; and making cyberspace intrinsically more secure by replacing passwords with more secure technologies and enhancing consumer protections online.” More here behind a paywall, but it’s free access if you register for a free trial.
It’s just lunch: Pakistan’s top intel officials have been “nudging” the Taliban to sit down for face-to-face discussions with the Ghani government in Kabul in a bid to open direct peace talks. The NYT’s Azam Ahmed and Joseph Goldstein: “…In meetings in Kabul this week, the Pakistani delegation, led by the nation’s army chief of staff, told Afghan leaders that the Taliban appeared willing to meet for negotiations in the coming month, according to Western officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the talks are private. If true, that would be a sharp reversal both for the insurgents, who have fought a deadly 13-year campaign against the government, and for the Pakistani military, which has long been accused of nurturing the Afghan Taliban as proxies.” More here.
More than 10,000 Afghan civilians died or were injured last year, according to the U.N. Sudarsan Raghavan, here.
Jack Reed is headed to Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan this week. The Democratic Senator from Rhode Island going to get a look at security and political developments in the region, his office said. Sign the U.S. has been in Iraq and Afghanistan a long time: This will be Reed’s 15th trip to Afghanistan, 16th trip to Iraq – and 8th to Pakistan. He’ll be back next week.
The White House is faulted for failing to use Islamic labels to describe terrorism, but the White House cites a strategic approach. The NYT’s Scott Shane: “[Obama] chooses his words with particular care when he addresses the volatile connections between religion and terrorism. He and his aides have avoided labeling acts of brutal violence by Al Qaeda, the so-called Islamic State and their allies as ‘Muslim’ terrorism or describing their ideology as “Islamic” or ‘jihadist.’” More here.
Nine years after being declared combat-ready, the Air Force wants you to know its "aerial quarterback," the F-22 Raptor, is doing very well in the skies above ISIS. Bloomberg's Tony Capaccio, here.
After combing through 20 separate counter-ISIS strategy proposals, the folks at the National Security Network just released a 46-page report in search of an ideal U.S. strategy against ISIS. Check out 6 key takeaways from the report—including a rebuff of many ideas that would very likely mean the U.S. would effectively own Syria’s civil war—here.
Seven myths about ISIS, by Juan Cole on his blog, “Informed Comment,” here.
Repeat: What ISIS really wants, by Graeme Wood in The Atlantic, here.
Take a peek inside ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s detainee file (aka DA Form 4237-R), FOIA’d by Business Insider’s Hunter Walker, here.
Qatar recalled its Egyptian ambassador last night in a show of frustration over unilateral action against ISIS in Libya. Reuters from Cairo, here.
Morocco just arrested 3 people it says were trying to join ISIS’ Libya affiliate, AP this morning, here.
New DEA restrictions on narcotics are forcing injured veterans to have more face time with their often-overstretched VA doctors, WaPo’s Emily Wax-Thibodeaux, reports, here.
Richard Hart Sinnreich writes in the new Army magazine about “recovering the Army’s nuclear battlefield proficiency,” here.
Duncan Hunter plans to introduce legislation that would strip service secretaries of the power to revoke medals after the “witch hunt” over Golsteyn. Army Times’ Kyle Jahner, here.
Two service members -- one a reserve sailor, the other an Air National Guard troop -- are one step closer to Mars. Air Force Times' Kevin Lilly: "California Air National Guard Tech. Sgt. Carmen Paul and Navy Reserve Lt. Cmdr. Oscar Mathews, a 2004 Air Force Academy grad, are among the 100 hopefuls who made the latest cut for Mars One, a privately funded enterprise that hopes to land a four-person team on the red planet in 2025." More here.
Training on the cheap, German edition: While the U.S. trains Iraqis to shoot by shouting "bang, bang" instead of pulling the trigger, the German army trains for war alongside its NATO allies by painting broomsticks black and attaching them to vehicles as mock machine guns. The Independent's Lizzie Dearden, here.
NEXT STORY: The War Over Vaccines: Terrorism's New Front