Syria’s new chemical weapons; Most moderate Syrian rebels not fit for duty; Iran deadline looms; O’Malley as dove to Clinton’s hawk; A better ISIS flag?; And a bit more.
U.S. intelligence officials warn an increasingly desperate Assad regime in Syria has developed a new chemical bomb filled with chlorine and there’s a “strong possibility” the regime will use it to keep rebels from taking more government-held territory following weeks of steady setbacks north and south of Damascus, the Wall Street Journal’s Adam Entous reported last night. “U.S. officials also suspect the regime may have squirreled away at least a small reserve of the chemical precursors needed to make nerve agents sarin or VX. Use of those chemicals would raise greater international concerns [than the August 2013 ‘red line’ episode] because they are more deadly than chlorine and were supposed to have been eliminated.”
This new revelation poses a significant dilemma for the Obama administration, which has repeatedly called for Assad’s removal, Entous writes, “but U.S. officials say they don’t want his departure to create a security vacuum in areas controlled by the regime, allowing Sunni militants affiliated with Islamic State or the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front to seize more territory. The U.S. officials are concerned that chemical weapons could fall into militants’ hands.”
Mortars are again falling on Damascus this morning after two shells landed on an outdoor market on Sunday, killing three civilians and wounding a dozen others, AP reports. Monday’s attack targeted a public square adjacent to Syrian state TV and close to President Bashar al-Assad’s Defense Ministry, though no casualties have yet been reported.
Meantime, the U.S. military’s cautious, “sputtering” push to train a moderate rebel force in Syria is trending “in the wrong direction,” AP’s Bob Burns reports. “The main problem thus far has been finding enough Syrian recruits untainted by extremist affiliations or disqualified by physical or other flaws. Of approximately 6,000 volunteers, about 1,500 have passed muster and await movement to training camps in other countries. Citing security concerns, the Pentagon will not say exactly how many are in training. Officials said that as of Friday, the number was under 100 and that none has completed the program.”
U.S. officials say negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program will miss the Tuesday deadline as Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif departed talks in Vienna yesterday to consult with Tehran, the Washington Post’s Carol Morello reports: “…Zarif met for about 20 minutes with Secretary of State John F. Kerry before flying back to Tehran on Sunday. His absence until Tuesday was considered a sign that he needs more instructions from Iran’s leaders on offers put before him by the five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany…
“The key unresolved issues concern the pace at which sanctions would be lifted and how much access Iran would grant international inspectors who would monitor its compliance,” Morello writes.
Iran is said to be considering “a U.S.-backed plan for it to send enriched uranium to another country for sale as reactor fuel, a step that would resolve one of several outstanding issues,” AP reported, adding, “Both sides recognize that there is leeway to extend [negotiations] to July 9. As part of an agreement with the U.S. Congress, lawmakers then have 30 days to review the deal before suspending congressional sanctions. But postponement beyond that would double the congressional review period to 60 days, giving both Iranian and U.S. critics more time to work on undermining an agreement.”
Six years of secretive diplomacy between Washington and Tehran, via the Sultan of Oman, have helped pave the way to where negotiations are today, WSJ’s Jay Solomon reported last night, shining light on “two convicted arms smugglers, a retired senior diplomat and a prominent scientist” that the White House helped release from detention in the U.S. and U.K.
Taliban fighters ambushed 11 Afghan soldiers in Western Afghanistan, Reuters reports. “A spokesman for the 207 Zafar military corps, Najibullah Najibi, said the fighting lasted five hours, with 11 soldiers and six Taliban killed. Afghan security forces have suffered a high number of casualties since the Taliban stepped up attacks across the country since the start of their spring offensive.” More here.
From Defense One
Former Maryland Governor and Democratic 2016 hopeful Martin O’Malley is casting himself as the dovish counter to Hillary Clinton, Politics Reporter Molly O’Toole writes on the heels of O’Malley’s “most comprehensive remarks yet on U.S. foreign policy, national security, and America’s role in the world.”
Keep calm and spy on. In the wake of the OPM hack, it’s worth pointing out that the threat from blackmail is frequently overstated, argues the Council on Foreign Relation’s Robert Knake, in this piece offering that and four other reasons why the historic data breach is hardly cause to write the obituary for U.S. intelligence.
Welcome to Monday's edition of The D Brief, from Ben Watson and Marcus Weisgerber. Why not pass it on to a friend? You’ll find our subscribe link here. (Want to read it in your browser? Click here.) And feel free to send us what you like, don’t like, or want to drop on our radar right here at the-d-brief@defenseone.com.
Tens of thousands of photos of former CIA “black” detention sites could delay trials of the men accused of plotting the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and the attack on the USS Cole, WaPo reports. Military prosecutors learned about the photos “while reviewing material collected for the Senate investigation of the agency’s interrogation program,” U.S. officials told the Post. “The existence of the approximately 14,000 photographs will probably cause yet another delay in the military commissions at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, as attorneys for the defendants demand that all the images be turned over and the government wades through the material to decide what it thinks is relevant to the proceedings,” the paper reports.
And speaking of Guantanamo, make sure you check out this Special Report about President Obama’s push to close the U.S. military prison here.
Space-X Rocket Blows Up: A Space-X Falcon 9 rocket carrying more than 4,000 pounds of supplies to astronauts aboard the International Space Station exploded just minutes after launch from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station on Sunday. The incident comes a month after the Pentagon certified the Falcon 9 to launch expensive military satellites. Video here.
While the explosion is a big deal for NASA, it could have national security implications as well. Elon Musk’s Space-X has been aggressively battling the United Launch Alliance, a Boeing-Lockheed partnership that has successfully conducted 96 successful launches since its forming in 2006, for the rights to carry military and spy satellites into orbit. Will the mishap prompt U.S. lawmakers to allow ULA to keep using Russian-made engine that powers ULA’s Atlas V rocket? More here.
The suicide attacker who hit a Kuwait City Shiite mosque killing 27 and another 200 transited through Bahrain after departing Saudi Arabia’s capital of Riyadh Thursday night. He had no record with Saudi security officials that would indicate he was about to carry out the third recent attack on a Shiite mosque claimed the so-called Najd Province of the Islamic State, the New York Times reported. Authorities in Kuwait have arrested at least two believed to have helped Friday’s attacker, including his driver that morning and the owner of the home where the driver was hiding.
Tunisian authorities are looking for accomplices who may have helped a 24-year-old who killed at least 38 people—a large number of which were Britons—in an attack claimed by ISIS, AP reports. Already the attacker’s father and three roommates have been detained after a swimmer found the gunman’s phone in the waters of the Mediterranean. The attacker, whom Reuters writes went “from rap fan to killer, reportedly struggled with the weight of his rifle, suggesting he may not have been terribly experienced before killing or wounding nearly 80 people at the beachside resort hotel in Sousse.
One of the suspects in Friday’s attack on a gas plant in southern France sent a cell phone picture of himself holding up the severed head of his boss to a number listed in Canada, sparking a broader investigation, the WSJ reported. The attacker, a 35-year-old Frenchman, “said he killed his boss in a local parking lot and claimed he was driven by a personal clash with him and not terrorism.” France’s Prime Minister Manuel Valls said his country remains under a “major terror threat” and warned of more attacks.
Does the U.S. military have a morale crisis? Yes, but probably not where you think it does, writes RAND’s Rapheal Cohen in the Lawfare Blog: “Ultimately, the military’s discontent may stem from dissonance between the commitment to, and pride in, the mission in Iraq and Afghanistan and the knowledge that these sacrifices have not yielded the desired results… Troops need to believe that the hardships they endure will lead to success in the end, something that cannot be guaranteed today. And unfortunately, this morale problem cannot be solved merely by motivational speeches or added benefits.”
The Pentagon recently sponsored a “war-gaming session” to pinpoint future challenges in recruiting and retention, Military Times’ Andrew Tilghman reports in this piece that raises dozens of good ideas—and points to the enormous chasm separating the practical from the ambitious “good idea fairy” notions spilling out from the Defense Department’s courting of Silicon Valley.
A Navy Times investigation has found the Navy for years ignored nine years of warnings from helicopter and ship crews of the dangers posed by waves crashing across destroyer and frigate flight decks. A large wave on Sept. 22, 2013 knocked two pilots out of their MH-60S helicopter and into the Red Sea where they drowned. David Larter and Meghann Myers with more here.
ISIS used chocolate and Islamic bookstore gift certificates to win over one potential follower in Washington state, NYT’s reports in this deep dive into extremist recruiting and how the family of one 23-year-old school teacher in Washington state was able to bring FBI investigators into correspondence that remains ongoing.
On the flip side of the war ISIS is waging, here’s a superb, harrowing WaPo photo tour of one refugee family’s fraught journey from the warzone of Aleppo, Syria, to asylum in Austria.
And lastly this morning: Was ISIS at a gay pride rally in London over the weekend? No, but CNN was convinced they were after a producer spotted a black flag that resembled that of the Islamic State. Only problem, the black flag was covered with phallic symbols of the male anatomy and also depicted other types of sex toys, not Arabic writing. Vox’s Max Fisher breaks the snafu down for us here.