ISIS looks to Libya; Turkey’s $3B migrant clampdown; Litany of failure at Kunduz; End of the C-17 line; and a bit more...
The Islamic State’s Plan B: the Libyan port city of Surt. With ISIS’ Syrian base under attack by U.S., Russian, French and Syrian warplanes, the fight could move to Libya in the coming months—and right now, the options for stopping such a scenario are exceedingly few, the New York Times reported this weekend. “Western officials involved in Libya policy say that the United States and Britain have each sent commandos to conduct surveillance and gather intelligence on the ground. Washington has stepped up airstrikes against Islamic State leaders. But military strategists are exasperated by the lack of long-term options to contain the group here.”
Not that the U.S. hasn’t taken its air campaign against the group to Libya with at least some results, including the presumed death of ISIS former Libyan chief, Abu Nabil, in mid-November.
But the group’s grip on Libya extends “more than 150 miles of Mediterranean coastline near Surt, from the town of Abugrein in the west to Nawfaliya in the east. The militias from the nearby city of Misurata that once vowed to expel the group completely have all retreated,” writes the NYT. “Militia leaders and Western officials estimate that the group’s forces in Libya now include as many as 2,000 fighters, with a few hundred in Surt and many clustered to the east, around Nawfaliya. A flurry of recent bombings, assassinations and other attacks has raised fears that the city of Ajdabiya, farther to the east, is the group’s next target. Its conquest could give the Islamic State control of a strategic crossroads, vital oil terminals and oil fields south of the city.” Catch the NYT’s full story, here.
Meantime in Iraq, Baghdad’s security forces (along with “Iranian-trained militias”) have managed, at last, to cut the ISIS supply line to the Anbar capital of Ramadi, McClatchy reported Sunday.
“We have now cut the last supply line of Daash connecting Ramadi to Syria,” said an Iraqi officer from Anbar. “Iraqi forces can now strangle the terrorists inside the city and we should see victory in a few days.”
But that line has been uttered before, McClatchy adds in a bit of healthy skepticism since, “in areas such as Ramadi where Sunni Muslims are in the majority [local Sunnis] have little trust in the Shiite-led government in Baghdad.” More here.
And in Syria, U.S.-backed rebels are clashing not with Assad’s forces or even ISIS, but with “rival militants” near the town of Azaz in the northern province of Aleppo, close to Turkey’s border. AP reports some 20 civilians have died from the skirmishes so far.
Meanwhile, ISIS has extorted nearly $1 billion from locals in its territory, NYTs reported Sunday. That route to fast cash supplements what are believed to be its diminishing returns from oil revenue via a campaign that draws its name from a WWII-era effort to cut off Hitler’s oil streams—“Operation Tidal Wave II”— Stars and Stripes’ Tara Copp reports.
On the Syrian refugee front, GOP 2016 contender Ben Carson dropped in on a refugee camp in Jordan to assure folks Syrian refugees are not keen on coming to the U.S., AP reported. His advice includes additional “financial and material support” for continued absorption of the refugee flows among Middle Eastern nations. More here.
And Democratic Rep. Tusli Gabbard of Hawaii is shaking up her party’s identity and message on Assad’s removal from power, NYT reported this weekend. “Ms. Gabbard, who served two combat tours in the Middle East and holds the rank of major in the Hawaii Army National Guard, has also called for the United States to suspend its visa waiver program with European countries until the intelligence community can catch up with the influx of Syrian refugees, an economically risky proposition.” Catch that profile, here.
Turkey’s $3B clampdown on migrants, courtesy of the EU. An emergency summit in Brussels on Sunday netted Ankara $3.2 billion over the next two years for “initial” extra funds to provide for the 2.2 million Syrian refugees hosted by Turkey, to include Arabic schools to discourage the displaced from seeking the relative solace of a new life in Europe. For its money, the EU expects an “immediate and substantial” reduction of the migrant flow on their turf, European Council President Donald Tusk said.
Turkey also gets some movement toward a goal it has long desired: a seat at the EU membership table. “The migration crisis could [also] speed up the admission of a handful of small Balkan states which had been expected to be delayed well into the next decade,” Reuters adds. “Turkey, with a fast-growing population of 78 million, would be the biggest state in the Union, yet much poorer than average. As a Muslim country, it would be the only nation in the bloc not founded on Christian traditions. Few expect Turkey to join the EU within a generation, but a more active relationship is broadly welcomed on both sides.”
Still not sorry for shooting down the Russian jet last week: Turkey’s Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said this morning from NATO: “No Turkish prime minister or president will apologize ... because of doing our duty,” he said from Brussels. “Protection of Turkish airspace, Turkish borders is a national duty, and our army did their job to protect this airspace. But if the Russian side wants to talk, and wants to prevent any future unintentional events like this, we are ready to talk.”
The Russians, meanwhile, have levied “sanctions against Turkey including bans on some Turkish goods and extensions on work contracts for Turks working in Russia. The measures also call for ending chartered flights from Russia to Turkey and for Russian tourism companies to stop selling vacation packages that would include a stay in Turkey.” More from the Associated Press, here.
Road trip! What happens when the GOP 2016 hopeful with the most national-security experience — and near-invisible polling numbers — takes his Senatorial sidekick on the road to New Hampshire? As Sens. Lindsey Graham and John McCain enthusiastically stumped through the Granite State, Politics Reporter Molly O’Toole tagged along through seven campaign stops over two days, and came back with this intimate portrait of two lawmakers who believe the Paris attacks will eventually bring voters around to Graham. Read O’Toole’s report, here.
Bonus: want to know what two senators joke about as they tool about in a rented SUV? Read the transcript here.
From Defense One
Get everyone involved in national service, says retired Gen. Stan McCrystal, who offers four reasons the defense community ought to support universal access to national service. Read that, here.
And tune in at 9:30 a.m. EST today to for a livestream of “Beyond the Draft: Rethinking National Service,” a panel discussion featuring McCrystal; Michèle Flournoy, the CEO of the Center for a New American Security and former Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, and Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass., who served as a Marine in Iraq. (The event is co-produced by Defense One and the Aspen Institute.)
Litany of failure at Kunduz. The day before a long holiday weekend, the top U.S. general in Afghanistan appeared before reporters and detailed a stunning list of “tragic but avoidable” human and technology failures that doomed the Médecins Sans Frontières hospital. Don’t miss Executive Editor Kevin Baron’s report on how so much went wrong in the special-ops mission, here.
How to judge the 2016 candidates’ proposals to fight ISIS? There’s no crystal ball, but start by seeing how well they reflect the lessons from Iraq. By that measure, says retired Gen. Eric Olson (the former Army division commander, not the former SOCOM commander), Hillary Clinton’s plan stacks up pretty well. Read on, here.
Return to Europe: With Russia on the march, the U.S. must bulk up its European forces, argue the Council on Foreign Relations’ Col. Michael R. Fenzel and Aaron Picozzi. “Over-the-horizon deterrence will simply not work—either to fend off Russia or reassure NATO allies.” Read that, here.
Give thanks for the OSS, argues the head of a historical society devoted to keeping alive the memory of America’s groundbreaking special-ops force. “As today’s security depends increasingly on intelligence and special operators, Congress should act to honor those who paved their way.” Read on, here.
Next Monday—Dec. 7: Defense One Leadership Briefing with Jeh Johnson: How prepared is the U.S. to prevent, defend against, and respond to an attack from ISIS? Department of Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson sits for an intimate conversation with Defense One, on Monday, Dec. 7, to discuss how threats are moving from the battlefield to the homefront, and how DHS is working with the military, Defense Department, intelligence community, and other agencies for a whole-of-government defense against terrorism, cyber attacks, and more. Defense One Executive Editor Kevin Baron moderates the event, 8 a.m. EDT at Washington’s District Architecture Center. Register for your spot here.
Welcome to the Monday edition of The D Brief, from Ben Watson and Bradley Peniston. Tell your friends to subscribe here: http://get.defenseone.com/d-brief/. Want to see something different? Got news? Let us know: the-d-brief@defenseone.com.
The British military wants more military equipment for the years ahead. The renewed push—stemming from an updated British version of the what the U.S. terms its Quadrennial Defense Review promises “smart and strategic” investments in the U.K. armed forces—and it comes on the heels of British lawmakers mulling a decision to expand airstrikes on ISIS over Syria.
What this will mean, explains British Ambassador to the U.S., Peter Westmacott, writing in Defense One, is that the Brits are “increasing security and intelligence staff by 1,900 and establishing a highly capable deployable joint military force of up to 50,000 personnel. It will mean investing over $270 billion in our capabilities over the next decade—including doubling our investment in equipment to support our Special Forces. It will mean buying new nuclear deterrent submarines and maritime patrol aircraft. It will mean investing almost $3 billion to improve our cyber defenses. And it will mean expanding our influence in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, while strengthening our partnership with the U.S., France and other NATO allies.”
What else is in store? “Accelerating the arrival of 24 stealthy F-35B fighter jets, ensuring that the navy’s two new aircraft-carriers both have at least a squadron of F-35s by the time they are deployed in 2023,” the Economist writes. “Another change is a £2 billion programme to buy nine Boeing P8 maritime-patrol aircraft.”
Who got snubbed? “The navy and the army have lost out. Britain’s admirals had hoped to recruit another 4,000 sailors; they will get only one-tenth as many…The army is to be reorganised to create two 5,000-strong “strike brigades” that can be sent off to fight at short notice. Mr Fallon insists that the new brigades will not come at the expense of Britain’s ability to deploy a heavily armed force of 40,000, as in Iraq, or to keep 10,000 troops in the field indefinitely, as in Afghanistan. But the underlying message is that rapid-reaction forces are in and that large numbers of boots on the ground are out, at least for now.”
The North Koreans evidently attempted to launch a ballistic missile from a submarine last week, but “it ended in failure with no indication that the missile successfully ejected from the vessel and took off,” South Korean media reported here.
Ever wonder where all the world’s known nuclear tests have taken place since 1945? The Washington Post drummed up this lively interactive showing all that and more. (Here’s 2010’s chilling animated representation by artist Isao Hashimoto.)
From Ukraine to Syria, the world has witnessed a rise of “gray” conflict zones, and U.S. Special Operations chief Gen. Joseph Votel has some advice on how to respond. What are “gray zones?” Places where “actors, sometimes state actors and sometimes non-state actors, act in a manner just below what would normally take us into normal open warfare,” Votel said.
His response plan: Embedding U.S. special forces on the margins and doing so early on to pre-empt larger, later conflicts. The Tampa Tribune’s Howard Altman has more from his interview with Votel, here.
And finally today—the last C-17 just departed Boeing’s facilities in southern California, marking “the end of an era for the region’s once-thriving aerospace industry,” AP reported Sunday. “The Long Beach facility assembled more than 250 C-17s over two decades but Boeing announced two years ago that it didn't have enough foreign orders to justify keeping the plant open. With production ending, most of the 25-acre plant will be shuttered by year's end. However, some engineering support for aircraft may continue there for a year or two.”
And for a final bit of nostalgia: One of your D Brief-ers was on the receiving end of the C-17 in action over eastern Afghanistan not all that long ago, and snapped a few shots of the Globemaster III here and here.