Historic ceasefire in the Philippines; Rebels moving west, north and east in Syria; US, Iran have run-ins in the Persian Gulf; Found: ancient hand grenade; and a bit more...
Syria’s chessboard is as busy as ever. Hundreds of Syrian rebels are evacuating a long-besieged Damascus suburb this morning while hundreds more of Turkey’s rebels are planning to move west after their lightning advance into the formerly ISIS-held town of Jarablus. Against that backdrop, U.S. State Secretary John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov are meeting again today in Geneva to discuss any way to reach some kind of new ceasefire for the war in Syria.
As part of that evacuation deal in Damascus, rebels “will be taken to the northwest province of Idlib, which is almost entirely under opposition control,” The Wall Street Journal reports. “The opposition fighters will be allowed to carry small firearms but are to give up heavy weapons, residents and the officials said. The transfers are to occur within 72 hours.”
And that movement west by Turkish-backed rebels in Jarablus—what they describe as the next phase of their operations—could take weeks or months, a rebel commander told Reuters: “Colonel Ahmad Osman, head of the Sultan Murad group, also told Reuters the rebels did not wish to fight Kurdish forces that have advanced in northern Syria as part of a separate campaign against IS, but would do so if necessary,” adding that “the priority was now to advance some 70 km (40 miles) westward to Marea, a town where rebels have long had a frontline with IS. "The priority is from Jarablus in the direction of al-Rai, reaching Marea." Al-Rai is a village between Jarablus and Marea captured by rebels this month.”
Osman also said dozens of villages between Jarablus and Marea would have to be retaken from ISIS along the way. "Liberating these villages between Jarablus and Marea requires weeks and perhaps months, according to the nature of the battles," he said. More on those developments, here.
Meantime, U.S.-backed Syrian Kurd and Arab fighters in the Syrian Democratic Forces largely withdrew eastward from Manbij, leaving it for an Arab council.
Just north across the border in Turkey, a car bomb in Cizre killed 11 police and wounded nearly 80 others in an attack Turkish officials have been quick to attribute to Kurdish separatists of the PKK.
And panning eastward to the Syrian city of Hasakah, where U.S. pilots last week intercepted Syrian military aircraft dropping bombs near SDF positions in the city, two U.S. pilots gave an account of what happened in an episode that could have dramatically raised tensions in Syria’s five-year war. USA Today’s Jim Michaels has the story.
ABC News has new details in the heart-breaking story of Kayla Mueller, the U.S. aid worker who was captured by ISIS. One of new details concerns accounts that Doctors Without Borders staff in Syria may have withheld critical information that could have secured her safety. It’s a difficult read, but ABC’s team did an excellent job carefully telling the story, which you can read here.
Oh hey, by the way: Iraq now has no interior minister or defense minister, but its troops are still advancing inch by inch toward Mosul, pushing ISIS out of the Qayyara oil producing region south of Mosul on Thursday.
Some big picture reading: Does the U.S. need to rethink its approach to foreign internal defense—the sort of work the White House sends Green Berets, Navy SEALs and MARSOC Raiders to do in places like Iraq and Afghanistan? Small War Journal has some ideas, including creating “a mid-career SOF FID specialization for SOF Officers from all four special operations service components to build long-term institutional knowledge of regional issues and personal relationships with foreign SOF organizations.” It could just be the thing that lets O-3s not feel so sad when they have to leave the team to go work in the operations center or the plans shop once they come up for their O-4 promotion. Read on, here.
Historic ceasefire reached in the Philippines. “Maoist rebels announced their agreement to put down their arms in a joint statement with Philippine government officials at the end of weeklong talks in Norway,” AP reports from a conflict that has simmered for nearly 50 years and has cost the lives of some 150,000 people. “In the statement, the two sides reaffirmed previous agreements and agreed to discuss the release of detainees and who should get immunity to take part in the talks. Negotiators said they aim to complete the peace talks in nine to 12 months.” That here.
From Defense One
DOD Science Board recommends “immediate action” to counter enemy AI. Pentagon scientists worry that the U.S. could be on the losing side of a artificial-intelligence arms race. Tech Editor Patrick Tucker reports, here.
Turkey won’t solve its ISIS problem by invading Syria Erdogan launched an intervention in Syria, while gutting his own government's ability to confront the problem at home, writes the Council on Foreign Relations’ Aaron Stein, here.
Air Force, Pentagon have more work to do before ditching the A-10, watchdog says. Losing the aircraft would also hurt U.S. combat search-and-rescue capabilities, the Government Accountability Office said in a newly declassified report. From GovExec, here.
Global Business Brief: Here’s your who-called-August-slow? edition: Priorities for a (Clinton) White House; The A-10’s forgotten mission; Why picking a training jet is so hard; and more. From Global Business Editor Marcus Weisgerber, here.
Swing states reject feds’ offer to cybersecure voting machines. Some security experts say it wouldn't even take Russian government-backed hackers to manipulate actual votes in some of America's antiquated tallying systems. Via NextGov, here.
The U.S. holds more Pacific exercises than you probably realize. The Army’s Pacific Pathways program is even bringing some nations’ military units to America for training. By Editorial Fellow Caroline Houck, here.
Welcome to Friday’s edition of The D Brief by Ben Watson and Bradley Peniston. On this day in 1346, an English army annihilated a French force, establishing the longbow as the era’s deadliest weapon. (Send your friends this link: http://get.defenseone.com/d-brief/. And let us know your news: the-d-brief@defenseone.com.)
US warship fires warning shots at Iranian boats, the latest of a series of close encounters in the Persian Gulf. On Wednesday, a trio of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy boats crossed the bows of the coastal patrol boats USS Squall and Tempest at 600 yards, a startling and unsafe maneuver. Later, a a Naser-class WAP Iranian vessel “closed Tempest head-on to within 200 yards,” a 5th Fleet spokesman told Navy Times. Tempest tried radio calls, shot flares, and ultimately fired three warning shots from its .50-caliber gun. The IRGCN boat reappeared even later in the day to harras the destroyer Stout. “U.S. Naval Forces Central Command deemed all three interactions unsafe and unprofessional in a week that has now seen four separate harassment attempts by Iranian forces.” Read, here.
In Somalia, two al-Shabaab gunmen were shot dead by authorities after they attacked a popular beachfront restaurant in the capital city of Mogadishu on Thursday, killing seven in the second attack on the beach since January when 20 people were killed in a gunbattle between Shabaab and police. The attackers Thursday brought a car bomb to the fight along with grenades they tossed at security forces, AFP reports, adding, “One man with a head wound was detained by the authorities which accused him of being the bomber.”
Apropos of nothing: archaeologists may have found the world’s oldest hand grenade. “The early grenade would have been filled with Greek fire, sealed and hurled at an enemy, a weapon common in Israel from the 11th to 14th centuries CE,” Times of Israel reported. “The objects were recently handed over to the authority by a family whose late father had retrieved them from the sea while working at the Hadera power station.” More here and here.
Doctors Without Borders narrowly avoids disaster in Med. Armed attackers fired their weapons on the MSF-staffed refugee response vessel’s bridge as they approached it in the Mediterranean nine days ago. The gunmen then boarded the ship—but not until the crew managed to descend to the ship’s safe room, evidently saving their lives in a 50-minute attack The Guardian calls the first of its kind. Story here.
In Yemen, 11 more civilians have been allegedly killed in Saudi-led airstrikes, AP reports this morning. And just yesterday, “the U.N. human rights chief, Zeid Ra'ad al-Hussein, called for an international investigation into rights abuses and violence in Yemen's civil war, insisting that a domestic panel set up to look into violations has not been up to the task.” More here.
Ever wonder about the legal contours of America’s involvement in Riyadh’s war for Yemen? Harvard Law Professor Alex Whiting has, and he investigates some of them in this broader take probing the question of war crimes in Yemen. Writes Whiting: “It is not enough to show that civilians were killed; it must be established that there was no legitimate military objective (the determination of which can be itself a contentious question), or that the civilian deaths were out of proportion to that objective.” Taking a few other very important legal dynamics under consideration, Whiting goes on to explain “why these cases [of alleged war crimes] are often so disputed, and why there have been relatively few prosecutions for conduct of hostilities crimes at the international tribunals.” Worth the click, here.
Can the Obama administration wrap the Yemen war into a nice resolved bow by November 8? Some in the admin think so, Politico reported this week.
And while we’re at it, don’t miss this #LongRead from The New York Times that probes alleged Saudi ties to extremism.
Congress to Pentagon: You guys seem to be safe enough right now. The Pentagon wants a new security screening facility at its metro entrance. But Congress says they haven’t made a strong enough case that the facility is so at-risk that the U.S. should dole out $12 million for the project, Politico’s Austin Wright reported this week. That’s it for us. Have a safe weekend, everyone!