Trump may relax battlefield rules; Executive-branch reorganization expected; Japan plans largest post-WWII naval foray; Jailbreak in Afghanistan; and just a bit more...
Trump administration may relax rules meant to limit civilian casualties in counter-terrorist operations. Officials are “exploring how to dismantle or bypass Obama-era constraints intended to prevent civilian deaths from drone attacks, commando raids and other counterterrorism missions outside conventional war zones like Afghanistan and Iraq,” The New York Times reported Sunday. “Already, President Trump has granted a Pentagon request to declare parts of three provinces of Yemen to be an ‘area of active hostilities’ where looser battlefield rules apply.”
Last year, then-President Obama issued a similar declaration for regions around Sirte, Libya, paving the way for the months-long air campaign that drove ISIS from the city, if not the entire country. (A bit more on Libya below.)
Now President Trump is reportedly on the verge of declaring “parts of Somalia to be another such battlefield-style zone for 180 days, removing constraints on airstrikes and raids targeting people suspected of being militants with the Qaeda-linked group the Shabab,” officials told the Times.
These plans had been in the works well before Trump took office, the Times writes: “[B]oth the Central Command, which oversees military activity in Yemen, and Africa Command, which oversees it in Somalia, had already been developing proposals by mid-2016 to ask for parts of Yemen and Somalia to be declared active-hostilities zones.”
Inside the White House, officials frame raising the tolerance for civilian deaths for sectors of Yemen and Somalia “as a test run while the government considers whether to more broadly rescind or relax the Obama-era rules.”
But broadening the new conditions in those two countries to the wider U.S. counter-terror fight has met stiff resistance from former Bush and Obama officials, three dozen of whom penned a letter to Defense Secretary James Mattis warning that an increase in civilian deaths from U.S. operations is likely to “cause significant strategic setbacks.”
The Times writes that this whole process was intended to move more swiftly. But the late-January raid in Yemen put the brakes on wider ambitions to lift CIVCAS tolerance. Read the rest, here.
Exec-branch reorg coming: President Trump is scheduled to sign an executive order with the ambitious title of “Comprehensive Plan for Reorganizing the Executive Branch” around 4:30 p.m. EDT.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration has filled few of its highest-level jobs, including at the Pentagon, where Defense Secretary James Mattis may be wondering when his help will arrive. Indeed “after two months into his tenure as secretary of defense not a single political appointee has joined him,” CBS News reported this weekend.
To review where things stand, “The administration has announced four nominees for senior Pentagon civilian jobs, and two of those later withdrew. Trump’s nominee to lead the Army, Vincent Viola, withdrew in early February because of financial entanglements, and about three weeks later Philip B. Bilden, the Navy secretary nominee, withdrew for similar reasons. On Tuesday, the White House announced it intends to nominate John J. Sullivan to be the Pentagon’s chief lawyer. In January, Trump announced former congresswoman Heather Wilson of New Mexico as his nominee to be Air Force secretary, but he has not submitted the nomination to the Senate.”
Adds CBS: “This is not an issue at the Pentagon alone. While most of Trump’s choices for Cabinet and Cabinet-level posts have won Senate confirmation, 500-plus government-wide sub-Cabinet level positions requiring Senate confirmation remain unfilled.”
(Specifically: 18 appointees have been confirmed, 24 are awaiting confirmation, and 511 jobs still have no nominees, according to this tracker.)
On the bright side, CBS says, “There are few visible signs that the absence of Trump appointments in the Pentagon has affected its management of the counter-Islamic State campaign or military operations in Afghanistan.” More here.
In Syria, don’t expect U.S.-Russia partnership anytime soon. The president’s “national security team is not considering any increase in cooperation with Russia against the Islamic State group in Syria,” U.S. News’ Paul Shinkman reports this morning, citing “multiple current advisers and former officials who have seen a plan the Pentagon delivered to the White House last month to hasten the defeat of the terrorist network.”
Why? "[M]ilitary officials, including Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, who orchestrated the 30-day interdepartmental review of the Islamic State group plan, have expressed deep skepticism about Russia's ability to stand by previous commitments it's made to the U.S. or reveal its true intentions in Syria. American officials estimate 80 percent of Russia's air strikes have actually targeted positions of rebels fighting the Assad regime, not the Islamic State group. Beyond the prospective symbolism of a new alliance, American war planners don't see how bettering relations with Russia could achieve anything the U.S. can't already do—a perspective some experts consider unwise." Much more to those dynamics, here.
Meanwhile in Syria, U.S. troops are reportedly expanding their patrols in the vicinity of Manbij—the city that brings Russians, Syrians, Americans, Kurds, Turks and Turkish-backed rebels together in one fraught tinder box—same Manbij declared in the control this morning of Russian and Syrian troops. See their two flags raised in the city, here.
And while we’re on Russia, “A force of several dozen armed private security contractors from Russia operated until last month in a part of Libya that is under the control of regional leader Khalifa Haftar,” Reuters reported Friday from Moscow, calling it “the clearest signal to date that Moscow is prepared to back up its public diplomatic support for Haftar—even at the risk of alarming Western governments already irked at Russia's intervention in Syria to prop up President Bashar al-Assad.” Read the full story (at least what’s known) about the Russian firm, RSB-group, here.
From Defense One
When the Generals Become Democracy's Guardians // Andrew Exum, via The Atlantic: Military officers have checked some of the president's uglier populist impulses. But what does that mean for liberal values?
Better Tech Is Arriving to Defend Against North Korean Missiles. It Won't Cool Regional Tensions // Patrick Tucker: Next year, the U.S. plans to deploy a shipboard interceptor to help protect Japan. China and Russia will not be amused.
Corruption Helped ISIS Take Mosul. Victory Cannot Last While It Persists // Transparency International’s Katherine Dixon: Without reducing the corruption that plagues the country's government, terrorism will be impossible to defeat.
Welcome to this Monday edition of The D Brief by Ben Watson and Bradley Peniston. #OTD1954: The battle of Dien Bien Phu begins. (Got a tip? Let us know by clicking this link to email us: the-d-brief@defenseone.com.)
Trump’s visits to his Mar-a-Lago resort are a “security nightmare vulnerable to both casual and professional spies,” Politico reports, citing former Secret Service agents and others. “And security experts warn that the commander in chief’s frequent visits — four since he took office in January — afford an unprecedented opportunity for eavesdropping and building dossiers on the president’s routines and habits, as well as those of the inner circle around him. They add that with each repeat visit, the security risk escalates...Spies don’t even need to physically go to Mar-a-Lago to do their work. Lists of the club's nearly 500 exclusive dues-paying members have leaked in recent weeks to the news media, giving foreign intelligence the names of potential targets for surveillance, blackmail or bribes that can help them get closer to the president.” Read on, here.
Mosul offensive update: U.S.-backed Iraqi troops are 100 meters away from taking control of the third of Mosul’s five bridges, as forces continue to push ISIS out, Reuters reports from a city soaked in rain this morning.
“Federal police and Rapid Response brigades, an elite Interior Ministry unit, said at the weekend they had entered the Bab al-Tob area of the Old City, where fighting is expected to be toughest because of its narrow alleyways where armored vehicles cannot pass. But the advance there stalled on Monday...Federal police forces also fighting in areas close to the Iron Bridge were battling pockets of militants in Bab al-Tob district and carrying out house to house searches.” More here.
Spotted on U.S. vehicles in the vicinity of Mosul: a Blighter AUDS counter-drone system. See it, here. Or watch a promo video from the manufacturer, here.
After Mosul, where will ISIS scurry off to next? Al-Arabiya has some ideas, including Tal Afar and Baaj (both to the west), or Al-Hadar (south). Catch of video explaining why, here.
Mike Flynn told Trump’s team during the campaign that he was working for a Turkish firm, the NYT reported on Friday. “The White House said that Mr. Trump did not know that Mr. Flynn was acting as a foreign agent when Mr. Trump appointed him national security adviser, a position that gave him access to classified meetings and materials. But a person briefed on the matter, who insisted on anonymity to describe private conversations, said Mr. Flynn’s lawyer contacted a lawyer for Mr. Trump’s transition team before the inauguration to ask whether Mr. Flynn should register given his work for Inovo,” which is “owned by a Turkish-American businessman with links to leaders in Ankara and asked him to work on an issue important to the government.” Read on, here.
Japan will send its largest warship to the South China Sea in May, “its biggest show of naval force in the region since World War Two,” Reuters reports this morning. "The Izumo helicopter carrier, commissioned only two years ago, will make stops in Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines and Sri Lanka before joining the Malabar joint naval exercise with Indian and U.S. naval vessels in the Indian Ocean in July," returning to Japan in August.
Adds Reuters, “The 249 meter-long (816.93 ft) Izumo is as large as Japan's World War Two-era carriers and can operate up to nine helicopters. It resembles the amphibious assault carriers used by U.S. Marines, but lacks their well deck for launching landing craft and other vessels.” More here.
Elsewhere in the region, Philippine President Rody Duterte has ordered his navy “to put up ‘structures’ to assert sovereignty over a stretch of water east of the country, where Manila has reported a Chinese survey ship was casing the area last year.”
Reuters: “Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said Duterte's instruction was to increase naval patrols in that area and put up structures ‘that says this is ours.’ He did not specify what structures would be erected.” Story here.
The U.S. military in Korea is getting a new drone. Stars and Stripes: “A Gray Eagle Unmanned Aerial Systems company will be permanently stationed at Kunsan Air Base, south of Seoul, U.S. Forces Korea said Monday...The Gray Eagle, which is an advanced version of the Predator, was developed for the Army by General Atomics Aeronautical Systems. It is capable of carrying four Hellfire air-to-surface missiles, according to the company’s website.” More here.
Lastly today: Jailbreak in Afghanistan—but the good kind. “An Afghan official says security forces have stormed a Taliban-run prison in southern Helmand province, freeing 32 Afghans held inside,” AP reports this morning from Kabul. “The military spokesman in Helmand, Mohammad Rasoul Zazia, says four members of the Afghan security forces were among those rescued. He says the raid took place on Sunday night in Nad Ali district where the captives were held at a Taliban hideout.” More here.