WH (same old) options for North Korea; Mattis’s MidEast tour; USMC doubts in Australia; Trump say what about Turkey?; And a bit more.
President Trump says North Korea has “gotta behave” as White House officials seek non-military answers. With the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier still steaming toward the peninsula and Pacific Command tweeting out provocative shows-of-force, like this, we now hear: “The administration has teed up additional sanctions on North Korea – from grounding its state airline to banning exports of its seafood – depending on its behavior, according to officials briefed on the policy,” The New York Times reported Monday. “The White House is also considering targeting Chinese banks that do business with North Korea, these people said. But it is holding off on that step, which would antagonize Beijing, until it sees what China does.”
But curb your enthusiasm, the Times writes, because “Few of the unilateral sanctions are likely to change North Korea’s behavior, and most would simply be recycled proposals from the Obama administration. So despite insisting it has mothballed the previous administration’s policy of ‘strategic patience’ on North Korea, the Trump administration finds itself in the familiar position of waiting.”
In case you’re just catching up, the NYTs reports “Trump essentially has three choices: a military strike that could ignite a full-blown war; pressure on China to impose tougher sanctions to persuade the North to change course, an approach that failed for Barack Obama as president; or a deal that could require significant concessions, with no guarantee that North Korea would fulfill its promises.”
The view from Pyongyang: no change. “On Monday, North Korea reacted to the latest warnings from the White House by accusing the Trump administration of applying ‘gangster-like logic’ and promising ‘tough counteraction’ to any military threats. Pyongyang’s deputy ambassador to the United Nations, Kim In-ryong, spoke from prepared remarks, four pages long and peppered with familiar statements condemning American ‘imperialism’ and defending ‘sovereignty.’”
Oh, and if you’re keeping track at home, Kim Jong-un "already has enough fissile material for 20 to 25 nuclear weapons, and he may be able to produce sufficient fissile materials – plutonium and highly enriched uranium – for six to seven new weapons a year...."
So what’s next? “The question is whether [President Trump’s] apparent willingness to consider both war and a deal may be enough carrot and stick to persuade China to change its approach and apply enough pressure to bring the North to the table.” Read the rest, here.
For your eyes only: Here’s some video of Chinese air force surface-to-air missile low-target interceptions, purportedly in the country’s western mountainous region.
Gentle reminder: That U.S. Navy carrier strike group headed to Korea? It’s gonna be a while, Defense News reported Monday evening. “On Saturday – according to photographs released by the U.S. Navy – the carrier passed north through the Sunda Strait, the passage between the Indonesian islands of Sumatra and Java. It's about 3,500 miles from Korea… While declining to confirm a specific date, they did not dispute speculative media reports from South Korea that the strike group could be in the region by April 25 or so.” More here.
Even further down the road, South Korea says its warships will have new missiles for ground targets—but they won’t go into mass production until next year, Yonhap News Agency reports this morning.
Mattis has arrived in Saudi Arabia, with later stops planned for Egypt, Israel, Qatar, and Djibouti, where he’ll solicit “broader contributions and new ideas to fight Islamic extremism as the Trump administration fleshes out its counterterrorism strategy,” AP reports in a preview. “Saudi Arabia is leading a coalition that is fighting Iran-backed rebels in Yemen. The coalition's airstrikes began two years ago but haven't driven the Houthi rebels from the capital and large parts of Yemen they still control...He also will make a brief stop at Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa, which the U.S. uses to fly sensitive drone missions over Somalia and Yemen.” Read more from Reuters, here. Look for dispatches from Defense One’s Executive Editor Kevin Baron, joining the trip later in the week.
From Defense One
Here's What 71 Years of US Presidential 'Red Lines' Have Taught Us // Jonathan Hunt, via The Atlantic: The country has walked to the brink of war or beyond with Iran, North Korea, Iraq, and Syria to prevent or stop them.
America Can't Do Much About North Korea // Ian Buruma, via The Atlantic: But whatever it can do, it will need China.
The Case Against Trump Selling Planes to Nigeria for War with Boko Haram // Hilary Matfess, via Quartz: Some in Washington say that the sign of 'goodwill' between the two governments is really a vanity project for Nigeria.
How a National Lab in Charge of Nuclear Safety Optimized Its Systems // Frank Konkel, via NextGov: It went from having 63 data centers to 18 across a square-mile campus, reducing facility costs and repurposing staff.
Pentagon Misses the Target When It Comes to Its Workforce // Scott Amey, via GovExec: Defense officials can't tell you how many contractors they employ or at what cost. Finding out is critical to personnel reform.
Welcome to this Tuesday edition of The D Brief by Ben Watson and Kevin Baron. #OTD1988, U.S. and Iranian warships fought the first missile duel between ships. Wanna subscribe to The D Brief? Email us at the-d-brief@defenseone.com and we’ll take care of you.
That plan for rotating US Marines in W. Australia? In doubt. More than 1,000 U.S. Marines are arriving in the “Top End” of Australia today for a six month deployment to train with their Canberra hosts and, later in the year, visiting Chinese military. This latest rotation is part of the “25-year annual deployment program started by former U.S. President Barack Obama in 2011,” Reuters reports from Darwin, in the Northern Territory. “The strength of this year's deployment at 1,250 troops lags well behind the initial plan for the deployment to reach 2,500 Marines this year.”
Adds Sky News-Australia: “That has cast some doubt on the future of the Marine rotation, with questions raised over the cost-sharing arrangement between Australia and the US behind the deal.”
However, Reuters continues, this deployment “will see the largest U.S. aircraft contingent to Australia in peacetime history.” Thirteen accompanying Marine aircraft, “including tilt-rotor Ospreys, Super Cobra helicopters and Huey helicopters, triple the four aircraft in past deployments,” is a "tangible kind of sign of our commitment to the region and to this partnership," said Marines' commander Lt. Col. Brian Middleton after the first troops arrived in Darwin. More here.
Trump’s plan of action for Syria (which still looks just like Obama’s plan) is “coming into view” the Associated Press reports. “The strategy breaks down into three basic phases: defeating the Islamic State group, restoring stability in Syria region-by-region and securing a political transition in which Assad ultimately steps down.” Worth the click for how challenging the process appears at this still very early stage—phase one is hardly a wrap, e.g.—here.
More traction in Syria: “U.S.-allied militias in northern Syria announced on Tuesday the formation of a civilian council to govern Raqqa after their planned capture of the city from Islamic State militants,” Reuters reports this morning. That action mirrors a similar council assembled by the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in the city of Manbij ahead of the clearance operation there last summer. More here.
Possible new CIVCAS report for the coalition fighting ISIS. Reuters again: “Jets ‘believed to belong to the international coalition’ struck the town of al-Bukamal in the south of the province near the Iraqi border, killing three militants and 13 civilians including children, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said on Tuesday.” Recall that Al-Bukamal is the eventual goal of the U.S.-backed Syrian rebels on the Syria-Jordan border, near al-Tanf—which was the location of the surprise, but failed ISIS raid on April 10.
New today: A damning report on coalition airstrike on the Omar Ibn al-Khatab Mosque in al-Jinah, Syria. The authors: Human Rights Watch. Their verdict: “US authorities failed to take all feasible precautions to avoid or minimize civilian casualties in the attack, a requirement under the laws of war.” Report, here.
On Turkey, Monday brought us two quite different messages from the White House and the State Department on the U.S.-Turkey relationship.
State Department: “Democracies gain strength through respect for diverse points of view, especially on difficult issues,” Foggy Bottom said, in a pretty kid-gloved statement extolling election monitoring and free media.
But Trump, per White House readout, made no mention of human rights or other mounting concerns with Erdogan’s rule: “President Donald J. Trump spoke today with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey to congratulate him on his recent referendum victory and to discuss the United States’ action in response to the Syrian regime’s use of chemical weapons on April 4th. President Trump thanked President Erdogan for supporting this action by the United States, and the leaders agreed on the importance of holding Syrian President Bashar al-Assad accountable.”
But this last line could be problematic down the road: “President Trump and President Erdogan also discussed the counter-ISIS campaign and the need to cooperate against all groups that use terrorism to achieve their ends.”
Why? Erdogan’s issue with PKK militants, whose links with the U.S.-backed SDF in Syria have clouded U.S.-Turkey relations in recent months.
Said former Pentagon official Andrew Exum: “Nose-holding tolerance for autocrats in the service of U.S. interests is one thing. Publicly cheering the demise of democracy is another.”
Worth noting: AP reminds its readers this morning, “Ivanka's biz prospers as politics mixes with business...Globally, the company has more than 180 pending and registered trademarks in countries including Canada, India, Japan, Israel, Mexico, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, as well as the U.S. and Europe, public records show.” More here, or turn back the clock to see Ivanka’s tweet from now five years ago thanking Erdogan during the launch of Trump Towers in Istanbul.
Lastly today: In Venezuela, "A gun for every militiaman!" President Nicolas Maduro wants to put guns in the hands of 400,000 new “Bolivarian militias created by the late Hugo Chavez,” AP reports from Caracas. Currently some 100,000 are in the armed ensemble.
About that group: “Chavez created the civilian militias with the goal of training 1 million Venezuelans to assist the armed forces in the defense of his revolution from external and domestic attacks. Maduro told the militia Monday that vision remains relevant as Venezuela continues to face ‘imperialist aggression.’”
Cheered Maduro: "A gun for every militiaman!"
Context: “Thousands of Venezuelans have taken to the streets since the Supreme Court stripped the National Assembly of its last vestiges of power nearly three weeks ago, a decision it later reversed. At least five people have been killed, dozens hurt and more than 100 detained in the demonstrations...Maduro's opponents are gearing up for what they pledge will be the largest rally yet to press for elections and a host of other demands Wednesday.” More here.