North Korea tests its 1st ICBM; US-backed Syrians advance in Raqqa; ‘Not winning’ in Afghanistan; Great UAV footage from the USMC; and just a bit more...
What to do about North Korea’s first ICBM. The U.S. Ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, has called for an emergency, closed-door meeting of the UN Security Council later today following Monday’s first test of a North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile—which flew long enough for initial reports to talk about where it might land. After at least 37 minutes, the missile splashed down in the Sea of Japan, U.S. Pacific Command said in a statement.
It was the longest-ranged North Korean missile system tested to date, according to Joseph Dempsey of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, who also linked to Pyongyang’s video of the test.
One thing is for certain: the ICBM poses a direct challenge to President Trump, who vowed on January 2 not to allow North Korea to develop a nuclear weapon that could reach U.S. soil.
True to rhetorical form, North Korean state media said Monday’s test has propelled the country to “a full-fledged nuclear power that has been possessed of the most powerful inter-continental ballistic rocket capable of hitting any part of the world.” They also called the ICBM a “package of gifts” for “American bastards.” CNN has that, here.
State Secretary Rex Tillerson called the launch a “a new escalation of the threat to the United States, our allies and partners, the region, and the world. Global action is required to stop a global threat.” In a July 4 statement, he said, “The United States seeks only the peaceful denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the end of threatening actions by North Korea. As we, along with others, have made clear, we will never accept a nuclear-armed North Korea.”
Reminder: When U.S. officials say “all options are on the table” when it comes to North Korea, “There are no good options—but some are worse than others,” Mark Bowden wrote for The Atlantic about two weeks ago.
A quick review of those “four broad strategy options” available to the U.S.:
- "A crushing U.S. military strike to eliminate Pyongyang’s arsenals of mass destruction, take out its leadership, and destroy its military";
- "A limited conventional military attack—or more likely a continuing series of such attacks—using aerial and naval assets, and possibly including narrowly targeted Special Forces operations";
- "Removing Kim and his inner circle, most likely by assassination";
- "acquiescing to Kim’s developing the weapons he wants, while continuing efforts to contain his ambition." Read Bowden’s lengthy analysis of each, here.
The U.S. and South Korean militaries responded Tuesday with a joint missile drill. That happened “within 10 miles of the demilitarized zone separating North and South,” the LA Times reported.
Catch video of that show of force response, curated by USA Today, here.
Explained U.S. Forces-Korea, in a statement: “This exercise utilized the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) and the Republic of Korea Hyunmoo Missile II, which fired missiles into territorial waters of South Korea along the East Coast. The system can be rapidly deployed and engaged. The deep strike precision capability enables the ROK-U.S. Alliance to engage the full array of time critical targets under all weather conditions.”
And South Korea is preparing for a two-day “annual war mobilization exercise” set to begin Thursday, Yonhap news reports this morning from Seoul. "About 120 central and regional government officials and military servicemen in charge of contingency preparations will join the mobilization exercise...During the exercise, the government will activate the intergovernmental emergency communication system that is used in an actual war situation, according to the ministry. 'The Ministry of National Defense plans to carry out the war mobilization exercise annually in order to have complete preparedness for defense mobilization,'" according to the defense ministry.
Russia and China say the U.S. needs to embrace China’s “de-escalation plan” intended to “suspend its ballistic missile program and the United States and South Korea simultaneously call a moratorium on large-scale missile exercises, both moves aimed at paving the way for multilateral talks.” More from Reuters, here.
From Defense One
'Whoever Controls Benghazi Controls Libya' // Frederic Wehrey: Well into its fourth year, the war in Libya's second city has buttressed strongman Khalifa Haftar and sent ripples through the region.
Why Trump Should Embrace America's Immigrant Soldiers // Patrick Granfield: Immigrants have been part of the armed forces since the Revolutionary War. The administration is considering ending a program that grants some of them citizenship in exchange for their service.
How ISIS Will Go On Without Mosul // Charlie Winter: Long after the city is back in the hands of the Iraqi government, it will continue to be a prop for the Islamic State—although an altogether different one.
Former Pentagon Money Man to Oversee Defense of NATO Computer Networks // Marcus Weisgerber: Kevin Scheid returns to the alliance as members eye spending increases to pay for cyber projects and traditional weapons.
Departing Air Force Undersecretary Warns of Budget Uncertainty // Marcus Weisgerber: Lisa Disbrow says the Air Force needs stable funding to better connect its planes, protect its satellites and buy more aircraft.
Senate Defense Bill Bans Russian Anti-virus Software, Splits CIO Duties // Joseph Marks: The bill would reform how the Pentagon manages internal cybersecurity.
Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of The D Brief by Ben Watson and Bradley Peniston. #OTD1950: U.S. and North Korean ground forces clash for the first time. Have something you want to share? Email us at the-d-brief@defenseone.com. (And if you’re reading this on our website, consider subscribing. It’s free.)
Like Iraq’s Mosul, Raqqa in Syria has an Old City, and the U.S.-backed Syrian forces finally breached it this weekend. They’ve now reportedly retaken about one-fifth of the wider city of Raqqa.
Reporting and history from AP: “The Islamic State militants fortified their positions, booby-trapping the 2,500 meters (yards) long Old City wall — or the Rafiqah Wall — to protect their de facto capital…The wall was built to protect Rafiqah, or ‘Companion’ in Arabic — an 8th century garrison town built in the late 700s next to the city of Raqqa, on the road between Damascus and Baghdad. The town was modeled after Baghdad, then the newly built capital of the Abbassid Dynasty…The Old City was destroyed by the attacking Mongols by mid-13th century and never regained its past glory.”
Harrowing reports continue to pour out of Mosul, where Iraqi and coalition troops are closing in on the Islamic State group’s final blocks in West Mosul, pushing ISIS ever closer to the banks of the Tigris river.
Some of the tales: a man has pulled himself out of the rubble of bombed out houses twice in two days, Reuters reports; “The elderly and weak are carried across mounds of rubble in blankets, as Soldiers fearful of suicide bombings hurry groups along,” AP’s Susannah George reports; and said one woman, while holding a malnourished baby, “We have walked out of hell.”
FWIW: Iraqi officials predict the fall of Mosul by the end of the week. WaPo from Mosul, here.
CODEL’s message to U.S. troops Kabul: “We are not winning, and obviously we need a new strategy to win,” Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., said Tuesday after wrapping up a three-day visit to the country (and neighboring Pakistan) with fellow Sens. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.; Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.; Sheldon Whitehouse D-R.I.; and David Perdue, R-Ga.
Graham talked tough on the stop, saying “he plans to tell the president that ‘he needs to pull all our troops out’ or add even more than the 3,000 to 4,000 troops U.S. military officials have asked for, to turn the current military ‘stalemate into a success,’” the Washington Post reported Tuesday from Kabul.
About that stopover in Pakistan, “which included a military tour of North Waziristan,” McCain said, “We told [Pakistani officials] the Haqqanis have a safe zone there, and that is not acceptable. They said they had taken some measures, but we made it clear we expect them to help and cooperate against the Haqqani group and others.”
ICYMI: A new Defense Department report says Pakistan is the reason for the Afghanistan stalemate. Read all about it via Real Clear Defense, here.
Trump FONOP #2: On Sunday, the American guided-missile destroyer Stethem sailed within 12 nautical miles of Triton Island in the South China Sea, in an operation meant to challenge the competing claims of China, Taiwan and Vietnam, a U.S. Defense Department official told Reuters. It was the Trump administration’s second freedom-of-navigation operation, following a late-May passage within 12 nautical miles of an artificial island built up by China.
Beijing called the Stetham’s route a “serious provocation” and vowed to step up air and sea patrols. WaPo, here.
Speaking of China: a new recon plane with a range of 2,450 kilometers could theoretically respond to threats across the entire South China Sea. That, from the South China Morning Post, here.
Seulement pour tes yeux: French President Emmanuel Macron visited the Ile Longue base off France’s western Brittany coast on Tuesday—and simulated a nuclear attack for the cameras. See him lowered from a helo onto the nuclear submarine, “Le Terrible,” here. See three more pictures of the event, via Sky News, here.
In entertainment news, it’s official: A new Top Gun film is scheduled to hit theaters July 12, 2019, director Jerry Bruckheimer announced this weekend on Twitter. On board to direct: Joseph Kosinski, who also directed “Oblivion” and “Tron: Legacy” in 2013 and 2010, respectively.
Who’s up for a game of detecting fake news? The game begins here. NPR explains what’s going on—and why—over here.
Warning #1: It’s more difficult than we’d imagined.
Warning #2: There aren’t too many fake news “tests” of national security news stories; but the drill could make you a little bit wiser by your lunchtime read later today.
Lastly today—One D Brief-er’s gripe, and a round of applause for the USMC: Even if we'd had quadcopters when we were public affairs officers (and NCOs) back in 2010, we still probably couldn’t have turned out as polished a product as the one the U.S. Marines just delivered from the dusty battlefields of Syria. Their video on artillery missions against ISIS, shared this weekend on social media, is worth the click, here.
NEXT STORY: ‘Whoever Controls Benghazi Controls Libya’