Oval Office argument, live: Turkey plans new Syrian incursion; Russia unveils Arctic drones; SM-3 takes down mock IRBM; And a bit more.

Oval Office argument, broadcast live. On Tuesday morning, President Trump surprised Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer by inviting the White House press into what the lawmakers thought was a private negotiation over various bits of the 2018 budget, including potential funding for a wall on the Mexican border.

Pushing back: But the incoming House Speaker and Senate Minority Leader surprised the president by dismissing a number of false statements from Trump. The meeting then turned into an all-but-unprecedented live broadcast of an extended argument between an American president and two political opponents.

Bottom lines: Pelosi reminded Trump that even with both houses of Congress under his party’s control, he lacks the votes to get the funding he wants. The president then vowed that if he doesn’t get his way, he will shut down the government — that is, DHS and the handful of other agencies not already funded for fiscal 2019 — and take the blame for it. This is, to put it mildly, not how GOP lawmakers wanted him to play it.

Read an annotated transcript here, or suffer through the whole 17 minutes to get a sense of how Trump, Pelosi, and Schumer operate.

Build part of the Wall. Trump: “We need a wall in certain parts, no, not all parts, but in certain parts of a 2,000-mile border, we need a wall.” WaPo’s Aaron Blake: “Trump’s requirements for the wall have shifted before – many times, in fact – but this seems to be a noticeable scaling back here.”

Fact check. Pelosi alluded several times about the need to start a serious debate with shared facts, as Trump repeated several of his past fabrications and added a few new ones:

• “We caught 10 terrorists over the last very short period of time.” CQ’s John Donnelly: “There’s zero evidence” for this, and spokespeople for DHS, State, and the White House could not provide any.
• The Wall would help stop “drugs [that] are pouring into our country.” Factcheck.org: “Most illegal drugs come across the Southwest border through legal ports of entry, hidden in passenger cars and tractor trailers,” according to the DEA and DHS.
• “People with tremendous medical difficulty and medical problems are pouring in, and in many — in many cases it’s contagious.” Experts say the risk is minimal.
• Mexico will pay for the wall. That’s what Pelosi says Trump told her, according to the Associated Press and CNN.

From Defense One

Russia’s New Arctic Drones Are Built to Spot Ships // Paulina Glass: Its maker says the two aircraft can ID vessels approaching oil and gas facilities from 100 kilometers away.

Test Validates New US Interceptor for European, Japanese Missile Shields // Marcus Weisgerber: In a first, an SM-3 shot down an intermediate-range ballistic target.

‘I Am Proud to Shut Down the Government,' Trump Says During Fight with Democrats // Eric Katz, Government Executive: The president made his position clear, saying he will “take the blame” if some federal agencies close.

Yes, the UN Is Still Necessary // Peter Yeo: In his dramatic Dec. 4 speech decrying the international body, Secretary of State Pompeo seems to have confused cause and correlation.

Four Steps to Fix the Security Clearance Backlog // Eric Fanning: Clearance delays are hurting the aerospace industry — and national security.

Welcome to this Wednesday edition of The D Brief by Bradley Peniston. Thanks for reading! And if you find this stuff useful, consider sharing it with somebody you think might find it useful, too. On this day in 1941, five days after the attacks on Pearl Harbor, U.S. F4F “Wildcats” sank the first four major Japanese ships off Wake Island.

Marginal progress in Yemen peace talks, held this week in Sweden. The conflict’s two principal parties — the Saudis and the Houthi rebels — have reportedly agreed “to reopen the airport in the Houthi-held capital Sanaa for domestic flights, one of the confidence-building steps under discussion at U.N.-led peace talks in Sweden.”
FWIW: Houthis still control the capital city of Sana’a; but the Saudis control the airspace. Tiny bit more, here.
For the record: Yemen's port city of Hodeidah "witnessed the greatest escalation of violence in 2018, with an 820% increase in total conflict-related fatalities," the folks at the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project reported Tuesday. As well, they write, "37% of civilians killed in the Yemen war this year have died in Hodeidah." That data and more, here.

Happening today in Washington: The U.S. Senate will vote on whether to cut military aid to the Saudis for their war in Yemen. The Guardian writes that today’s vote “marks the first time a measure invoking the 1973 War Powers Resolution, asserting congressional supremacy in matters of war and peace, has progressed so far in the Senate.”
Forecast: "Even if passed, the resolution would have to go to the House of Representatives, where Republicans have used delaying tactics to stall a parallel measure."
But say it passes all those hurdles, then "it would then face the prospect of a presidential veto, requiring a two-thirds majority in both houses to override it." A few more politics and procedures to these developments, here.

Also happening today: CIA director, Gina Haspel, is slated to brief House leaders on the killing of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi.
And then tomorrow: State Secretary Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary James Mattis will brief lawmakers on the wider relationship with Saudi Arabia.

Afghan security forces abandoned a district near the border with Iran, “leaving the area to Taliban insurgents after the government failed to resupply dozens of troops stationed there,” provincial officials told Reuters this morning.
Location: Shebkoh district of Farah province, a frequent narcotics smuggling route from Afghanistan’s Helmand province. Shebkoh "has been under Taliban siege for months, making it difficult for the government to send reinforcements," Reuters reports. Afghan troops reportedly had been waiting for the call to ditch Shebkoh, and took all their ammo and vehicles to the provincial capital, Farah City.
According to the Taliban, “the Afghan government abandoned the district after a heavy firefight overnight, and the [Taliban] seized an amount of ammunition” as a result.
For what it’s worth, “Areas of western Afghanistan have seen heavy fighting in recent days. Last week, at least 14 Afghan soldiers were killed and 20 captured when Taliban fighters attacked an outpost in Shindand district in Herat, the province neighboring Farah.” More here.

“In a few days,” Turkey’s military is about to launch another incursion into Syria, President Tayyip Erdogan said this morning at the Turkish Defense Industry Summit in Ankara.
A few details, via Erdogan: “We will start the operation to clear the east of the Euphrates from separatist terrorists in a few days. Our target is never U.S. soldiers... This step will allow for the path to a political solution to be opened and for healthier cooperation."
On the significance of going east of the Euphrates: Turkey's troops had not done so yet "partly to avoid direct confrontation with U.S. forces," Reuters writes, and partly because of "Kurdish fighters [holding territory] to the east of the Euphrates." AP writes that Turkey has also been “frustrated by delays in the implementation of an agreement that was reached between Washington and Ankara that would effectively push the Kurdish militia out of the key northern Syrian town of Manbij, west of the Euphrates.” A bit more from Reuters, here.

ICYMI: The U.S. military built a few observation posts along the Turkish-Syrian border recently, and they’re now up and running — the Pentagon said Tuesday evening in a statement confirming much of what al-Monitor reported earlier that day.
The full statement from Pentagon spox Col. Rob Manning: "At the direction of Secretary Mattis, the U.S. established observation posts in the northeast Syria border region to address the security concerns of our NATO ally Turkey. We take Turkish security concerns seriously and we are committed to coordinating our efforts with Turkey to bring stability to northeastern Syria. As the Secretary stated, 'We want to be the people who call the Turks and warn them if we see something coming out of an area that we're operating in.' We remain focused on our mission to secure the enduring defeat of ISIS in Syria."
Said Turkey’s Erdogan about these OPs today during his remarks in Istanbul: “We know that the aim of the radar and observation posts set up by the United States (east of the Euphrates) is not to protect our country from terrorists, but to protect the terrorists from Turkey.”

French authorities are hunting for a “fugitive gunman who opened fire on Christmas shoppers at a market in Strasbourg, northeastern France,” killing two and injuring more than a dozen others on Tuesday, Agence France-Presse reports.  
According to French authorities, "the suspect, a 29-year-old Strasbourg native identified as Cherif C., cried 'Allahu Akbar' as he opened fire with a handgun and stabbed passers-by" at about 8 p.m. local time.
What’s more: “The man, who was on a watchlist for suspected religious extremists, had already been sentenced 27 times in France, Germany and Switzerland for crimes including violence and robbery.” More to this developing story, here.

How Russia sows doubt in the world. “After a botched assassination attempt of Russian spy Sergei Skripal in Salisbury, the Kremlin spread dozens of false stories in a highly coordinated effort to sow confusion. It worked,” reports the Washington Post. “Intelligence agencies have tracked at least a half-dozen such distortion campaigns since 2014, each aimed, officials say, at undermining Western and international investigative bodies and making it harder for ordinary citizens to separate fact from falsehood.”  Read this essential dissection of a #LikeWar tactic, here.
For your ears only: Hear more about how Russia weaponizes social media in our November podcast discussion with #LikeWar authors P.W. Singer and Emerson Brooking. Or skip back to our summer chat with former FBI agent Clint Watts on the same subject in episode 11 of Defense One Radio.

And finally today: Russia has flown nuclear-capable aircraft to Venezuela this week. But don’t get too excited (or in “hysterics”), because this has happened before — and maybe more recently than you think.
Context: "The bombers' deployment follows Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's visit to Moscow last week to shore up political and economic assistance even as his country has been struggling to pay billions of dollars owed to Russia," NBC News reports. "Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said at last week's meeting with his Venezuelan counterpart, Vladimir Padrino Lopez, that Russia would continue to send its military aircraft and warships to visit Venezuela as part of bilateral military cooperation."
So when did this happen before? Just before Halloween in 2013; and on 9/11 in 2008. (h/t to OSINT-watcher @steffanwatkins for the reminders.)  
One way Russia could prolong the anxiety over this deployment: Make it long-term. STRATFOR has a tiny bit on that supposition, and why it matters, here.