Adversaries will aim to ‘stoke societal unrest’ after Election Day, officials warn

Foreign adversaries are intensifying efforts to influence the outcome of the Nov. 5 presidential election, and will likely amplify disinformation campaigns about election results that encourage physical violence between next month and Inauguration Day in January, intelligence officials warned Tuesday.

Russia, Iran, and China “will remain committed to trying to undermine U.S. democracy, stoke societal unrest and position their preferred candidates,” said one official from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, who spoke on the condition of anonymity per ground rules of a news conference.

Russia and Iran “are probably willing to at least consider” tactics that would incite violence, said the official.

Russia prefers former president Donald Trump, while Iran prefers Vice President Kamala Harris, according to previous assessments from ODNI, which oversees U.S. intelligence programs and activities. China, meanwhile, is seeking to influence down-ballot races because neither presidential candidate has a policy agenda that caters more favorably to Beijing, the office has previously said.

With just two weeks to go before Americans cast their vote, the influence efforts have accelerated. One instance that has received national attention centered on false allegations about Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz, which the ODNI official called “manipulated” media that was generated by Russia.

Intelligence analysts used a combination of internal and commercial tools to determine the video purporting to show the abuse victim speaking out was crafted by pro-Kremlin spin doctors, a different ODNI official said. The video had previously been debunked and disputed by social media users and researchers.

“Foreign-driven or -amplified violent protests, violence, or physical threats to election workers or state and local officials could challenge state and local officials’ ability to conduct elements of the certification and Electoral College process, particularly if they prevent necessary physical access to facilities or venues,” says a party redacted whitepaper released Tuesday that was declassified Oct. 16 by National Intelligence Director Avril Haines.

It adds that dynamic could extend to the January 6 election certification process, which would echo the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol that followed baseless claims from then-President Donald Trump and GOP allies about his election loss being rigged.

Cyber operations and other espionage techniques may be deployed day-of. Foreign hacking collectives may attempt to alter public-facing election, state government or news websites to “promote confusion” about results, the declassified assessment adds. The first ODNI official on the call noted that adversaries would likely refrain from hacking attempts to disrupt vote counts.

Iran and Russia are behind brazen election-related hacking and disinformation attempts, U.S. law-enforcement officials say. Last month, the DOJ filed criminal charges against a trio of operatives tied to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, alleging their involvement in a hack and leak of Trump campaign documents.

Russia for months has conducted sustained influence campaigns to tip the American vote in favor of Trump, according to previous assessments and legal accusations. Moscow, Tehran, and China have vehemently denied such claims.