Ceasefire in place, Biden signals optimism for broader Middle East peace

Israel and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon have agreed to a ceasefire, a breakthrough that President Joe Biden said would press Hamas to accept a ceasefire of its own and hand over Israeli hostages, and enable a reshaping of the Middle East. 

“Under the deal reached today, effective at 4 a.m. tomorrow, local time, the fighting across the Lebanese-Israeli border will end. Will end,” Biden told reporters. “This is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities.” 

Israel must remove military elements from Lebanon over the next 60 days, while the Lebanese military secures territories that were under Hezbollah control.

Biden said the military diminishment of Hezbollah will put pressure on Hamas to return Israeli hostages, and to reach their own ceasefire agreement with Israel, potentially opening the door for a long-term peace and a Palestinian State. 

Capitulation by Hamas, which the White House says is more likely without military support from Hezbollah, would “bring an end to the fighting, which would make possible a surge of humanitarian relief. Over the coming days, the United States will make another push for Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, Israel, and others to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza, for the hostage release, and the end of the war without Hamas in power.”

As part of the agreement, the United States will play a role in monitoring the ceasefire for violations and bolstering the Lebanese military. But Biden emphasized that no U.S. troops will be on the ground in Lebanon. 

“This is all in security assistance and other kinds of related activities,” and that it would primarily be done out of embassies, A senior White House official told reporters. “We don't expect anybody to engage in any kind of combat operations of any kind.” 

Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters, “We're, of course, strongly supportive of a ceasefire. We're consulting closely with our interagency partners in terms of what potential contributions the DOD can make.”

Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., the Chairman of the Select Committee on Intelligence, said in a statement: “This agreement to end the war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has killed thousands of people, is a welcome development for the region and should increase pressure on Hamas to reach a cease-fire agreement to end the fighting and destruction in the Gaza Strip, which has already claimed so many innocent lives.”

It’s not the first time Hezbollah and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire, and both sides still claim victory in the 2006 agreement. But Hezbollah remained in Lebanon as a powerful political and military force, even preventing the Lebanese parliament from selecting a president who wasn’t aligned with the militant group. 

But Israel’s war on Hezbollah, and particularly its targeted assassination of Hezbollah leaders, has severely hampered the organization—one of the reasons the White House thinks this ceasefire will be permanent. 

Lebanese forces will move into former Hezbollah territory in the North, the White House senior official said, and will “also be patrolling the area and ensuring that if there's any remaining infrastructure or remaining weaponry, that it is removed and that no such infrastructure can be rebuilt again in that area.”

It’s a new era for the Lebanese government, the official said: “The opportunity that presents itself today in Lebanon with this ceasefire is for the government to assert its control across a territory and functions that, frankly, they haven't done in 50 years.”

The United States will chair a newly-formed UN mechanism to monitor for ceasefire violations. “The United States, both through diplomats and military personnel, are going to be receiving any complaints by either side of any potential violations,” the official said. And the United States will work with the Lebanese Armed Fores to make sure they can respond to violations and deter future ones. 

But, Biden said in his remarks, “if Hezbollah or anyone else breaks the deal and poses a direct threat to Israel, then Israel retains the right to self defense consistent with international law.” 

The official did not address the possibility of Israel breaking the deal. Given Israel's practice of killing leaders of groups it is in negotiations with, that remains a possibility. But, the official said, any claims of a violation by either side would be dealt with promptly—another departure from the way the United Nations managed previous ceasefires. 

“What we're committing to is that, one that's not [a ceasefire complaint that goes to] a mailbox anymore. But rather we will [make] sure that whenever there is a view of a violation, specifically a serious violation, it is addressed immediately.”

Biden said the agreement is another step toward normalizing relations across the Middle East, and eventually achieving a two-state solution wherein Palestinians gain long-sought political autonomy. 

“Today's announcement brings us closer to realizing the affirmative agenda that I've been pushing forward during my entire presidency, A vision for the future of the Middle East…a future where Palestinians have a state of their own, one that fulfills this people's legitimate aspirations,” he said.

Still, that last aspiration seems unlikely at best. Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long publicly opposed the two-state solution, even under pressure from the Biden administration to accept it. While Hamas accepted the concept of a separate state along the 1967 borders, the idea is not even popular among the Palestinians. An October poll from last year found that only 24 percent of Palestinians support the plan, “down from 59% in 2012.” Young Palestinians in particular were opposed, with only 15 percent of those aged 15-25 in favor. 

In  February 2020, President Donald Trump proposed a different plan to achieve a two-state solution, one that heavily disadvantaged the Palestinians. That plan would shrink the size of a potential Palestinian state and leave Israel essentially in charge of security, as well as set the timeline for Israeli withdrawal from (now smaller and non-contiguous) Palestinian territories. 

The Times of Israel in October reported that Trump gave Netanyahu a timeline to end the war in Lebanon before Trump takes office in January.