The D Brief: Russia races for gains; House passes NDAA; Taiwan talks to Trump team; USAF preps for transition; And a bit more.

Future of Ukraine

Russian invasion forces are advancing again in eastern Ukraine, approaching within roughly six kilometers of Pokrovsk, which the New York Times describes as “a key rail and road hub for Ukraine’s army.”

Russian troops are allegedly attacking Ukrainian positions “up to 30 times per day and have an advantage in artillery fires—suggesting that Russian forces are currently relying on a superior number of personnel and artillery ammunition to secure tactical gains in the Pokrovsk direction,” analysts at the Institute for the Study of War wrote Wednesday, citing a Ukrainian commander in the area. 

“Another Ukrainian brigade officer reported that Russian forces lost nearly 3,000 personnel in the Pokrovsk direction in two weeks,” which ISW said suggests “Russian forces may well continue making gains towards Pokrovsk, but the losses they are taking to do so will temper their ability to translate these gains into more far-reaching offensive operations.”

Panning out: “Analysts say the Kremlin is racing to secure as many territorial gains as possible before President-elect Donald J. Trump takes office next month and starts to push for peace talks with terms that are likely to be shaped by each side’s status on the battlefield,” the Times writes. 

Developing: Hungary’s autocratic leader is trying to sell Russia on a Christmas ceasefire for Ukraine, Reuters reported Thursday from Moscow and Budapest. 

Ukraine’s president was not at all happy with Viktor Orban’s plan, writing Wednesday on social media, “There can be no discussions about the war that Russia wages against Ukraine without Ukraine…I am grateful to [Donald Trump] and many European leaders with whom we are already working to find the right and strong solutions for real peace,” he added. 

Related reading: 

• “US Says Russia May Fire Oreshnik Missile at Ukraine in Days,” Bloomberg reported Wednesday; 
• “EU must find billions for arms within a year, defence chief says,” Reuters reported Monday; 
• And “We'll stop making Ukraine fight one-handed, German opposition leader tells Zelenskiy,” the wire service reported separately Monday from Kyiv. 

Welcome to this Thursday edition of The D Brief, brought to you by Ben Watson with Bradley Peniston. Share your newsletter tips, reading recommendations, or feedback here. And if you’re not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 2012, North Korea launched its first satellite. 

House passes NDAA

Lower-chamber lawmakers voted 281-40 to approve the compromise 2025 National Defense Authorization Act on Wednesday. The bill includes a 14.5 percent pay raise for junior enlisted service members, a 4.5 increase for all other members, and “a number of culture-war amendments that made it into the traditionally bipartisan bill,” The Hill reported. “The most contentious provision is a restriction on the use of funds from TRICARE, the health care program for active-duty service members, for gender-affirming care for the children 18 years and younger of service members.” The New York Times and Military.com have more.

Taiwan aid. The bill authorizes the delivery of military articles and training worth up to $300 million, Focus Taiwan reports.

The Senate is expected to take up the NDAA next week, Senate GOP Whip John Thune of South Dakota told The Hill, ahead of the deadline imposed by the continuing resolution that prevented a government shutdown after fiscal 2025 began in October.

U.S. authorities recently arrested a Chinese man for flying a drone over Vandenberg Space Force Base in California about two weeks ago on November 30, the Department of Justice announced Wednesday. He’s a 39-year-old named Yinpiao Zhou, and he “was arrested Monday at San Francisco International Airport prior to boarding a China-bound flight,” the Justice Department said. 

What happened: “On November 30, 2024, drone detection systems at Vandenberg Space Force Base in Santa Barbara County detected a drone flying over the base,” according to the Justice Department’s account. “The drone flew for nearly one hour, [and] traveled to an altitude of almost one mile above ground level” before base security personnel arrived at the drone’s origin point at a nearby park. At that point, the security personnel “spoke to Zhou and another person accompanying him, and learned that Zhou had a drone concealed in his jacket – the same one that flew over the base.”

With the help of a federal search warrant, agents discovered “several photographs of Vandenberg Space Force Base taken from an aerial viewpoint” on the drone. And a search of his cell phone revealed he had Googled “Vandenberg Space Force Base Drone Rules” the month prior, and had “messaged with another person about hacking his drone to allow it to fly higher than it could otherwise,” the Justice Department said. 

If convicted, he could face as many as four years in prison for the offense. Read more, here. 

Related reading: 

• “Homeland Security shares new details of mysterious drone flights over New Jersey,” the Associated Press reported Wednesday; 
• “Pentagon shoots down Iran 'mothership' claim amid New Jersey drone mystery,” ABC News reported Wednesday; 
• “With drones flying over New Jersey, thousands of worried locals are turning to Facebook to solve the mystery,” Fast Company reported Thursday. 

Pacific

Chinese missile attacks would likely close the runways at U.S. air bases across the Pacific, should the two countries come to blows, according to a new report published Thursday by the Stimson Center think tank. 

And as things stand, those runways could remain disabled for the first several weeks of a conflict with China, slowing the arrival of aerial refueling tankers and other aircraft and repair assets. “American political and military leaders — as well as the American public — should be under no illusions: there will be no refuge or rest from the long reach of Chinese missiles for U.S. air bases in a war,” the authors warn.

Why it matters: “Chinese military planners might calculate that they have a window of over 30 days — when American airpower would be largely sidelined — to accomplish a fait accompli” in Taiwan,  the authors write. “If Beijing concludes that it can win a quick and easy military victory, its actions could become very hard to deter.”

“Addressing this threat to U.S. air bases is arguably the most critical and daunting task facing the U.S. Air Force today,” the Stimson Center says. “Without aerial refueling from tankers, many U.S. aircraft — including fifth-generation fighter jets — lack the internal fuel capacity to close the distance to targets in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea and return to existing U.S. bases in the region,” according to the report. “These runway closures could also push back U.S. bombers to bases in Australia, Hawaii, or Alaska at the outset of a conflict, adding hours to the flight times and substantially reducing the number of bomber sorties that the United States could generate each day.”

What’s to be done? For starters, U.S. military planners should stock up on “large numbers of attritable, mobile, and runway-independent platforms rather than traditional fighters and bombers” based in the region, according to the report. 

The Pentagon should also put more money toward “prepositioned stockpiles and infrastructure improvements, including upgrades to civilian airfields in the Pacific; hardened fuel-storage facilities; and dispersed storage facilities containing weapons, munitions, and equipment, including runway repair kits.” The U.S. should also “consider coproducing fast-drying concrete with Japan because in-country production of the specialized material would make resupply much easier,” the authors advise. 

Another recommendation: Staging “decoy fighters and inflatable aircraft hangers” to “act as ‘missile sponges’” for the anticipated attacks. But perhaps most importantly, “By building their air forces around massive numbers of drones and missiles of various types, allied and partner forces would acquire the combat-credible capabilities necessary to disrupt and delay Chinese offensive operations.” Read the report in full, here. 

See also: “Strengthening Resilience in Taiwan,” which is a report published Wednesday by a trio of researchers at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 

Additional reading: 

• “Record number of Taiwanese [128,000 people] join U.S. workforce in 2023,” Focus Taiwan reported Thursday; 
• And “Researchers Uncover Espionage Tactics of China-Based APT Groups in Southeast Asia,” Hacker News reported Wednesday after Symantec shared its latest report.  

Trump 2.0

How the Air Force chief is preparing for the new administration. Whatever changes the Trump administration makes to the Pentagon, Air Force Chief Gen. David Allvin says he’s ready to adapt. “I am not going to have the hubris to say I know which of these things are right or wrong or different. Things look like they're on pace to change. My job is to ensure that I provide the advice within that change, whether the changes are asked for my advice, or say, go, build your Air Force around this,” Allvin told Defense One on the sidelines of the Reagan National Defense Forum. Read on, here.

Taiwan national security officials are visiting the U.S. for talks with Trump’s transition team and “Republicans likely to populate mid-tier political positions,” Reuters reported Wednesday. The visiting crew includes deputy secretaries-general of Taiwan's National Security Council, Lin Fei-fan and Hsu Szu-chien. A bit more, here.